Steady to negative outlook for markets next week

Business

oi-Sunil

By Sunil Fernandes

Published: Saturday, February 25, 2012, 11:37 [IST]

Markets this week snapped a seven week rally and witnessed the first weekly decline in 2012. Concerns of rising crude and high fiscal deficit weighed on markets, with the benchmark indices on the NSE and BSE declining. Next week is likely to see a steady trend with a slightly negative bias.

There are unlikely to be major commitments from investors before clarity on policy decisions in next month's Union Budget and the Credit Policy.

Going into next week, market sentiments would be eroded if crude continues to rise. Brent crude has already crossed the $125 mark after reports from the IEA suggested that Iran had increased uranium enrichment. India imports substantial quantity of crude and rising crude prices have an effect on fiscal deficit, current account deficit and inflation.

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) continue to be major buyers of Indian equities. Going forward their investments would be based on improving macros, as well as external factors like Greece.

Next week one would have to look for shares that were sold into, including Sterlite Industries and HDFC. Any sharp decline in these stocks would make their valuations attractive for long term investors.

The next couple of weeks would see a more steady trend, until the Union Budget is delivered by the Finance Minister. Investors and institutions are unlikely to make large scale commitments unless that read the fine print of the budget.

Following the Union Budget all eyes would be focused on the RBI to see what it does with interest rates. Clearly, with major policy decisions in March, the month is expected to be volatile.

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