Credit Policy, Union Budget, Railway Budget: decisive movers for markets next week

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Credit Policy, Union Budget, Rail Budget: decisive movers
Markets are expected to take cues from three major policy initiatives next week following policy announcements that are expected to be decisive movers for the markets.

While the Railway Budget might be of lesser significance, the Union budget and the Credit Policy will be major fundamental drivers for the markets. As for the credit policy on March 15, the overwhelming majority are not expecting a repo rate cut. In any case they were expecting a CRR cut which has already happened.

A repo rate may not come through as the RBI would like to wait for the Budget to be declared the next day before any decision is taken. Also, commodities like crude have rallied significantly and with the ECB LTRO there are fears that several other commodities may rally, which could lead to inflation. This could prompt the RBI to hold rates for the time being. However, any hawkish statements by the RBI could lead to markets sentiments being dampened and a sell-off, particularly in banking stocks.

As far as the Union Budget is concerned, markets are keeping a close eye on government measures to reduce the fiscal deficit. Any positive developments to bring down the deficit, which is expected to be at least a percentage point higher than the projected 4.6% of GDP would propel market sentiments.

Also, the markets would keep an eye on the government's desire to push through key reforms like DTC, GST and FDI in multi-brand retail. Severe hikes in excise for various industries could also have an adverse impact on the markets. Clearly, the markets are looking at a growth oriented budget along with fiscal consolidation. Whether that is delivered, we would have to wait for March 16 to see.

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Read more about: credit policy, fdi, union budget 2012
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