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ADB revises India's growth forecast to 5.4%

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Published: Friday, December 7, 2012, 11:46 [IST]

ADB revises India's growth forecast to 5.4%

The Asian Development Bank has revised India's growth forecast from 5.6% to 5.4% in fiscal year (FY) 2012 and from 6.7% to 6.5% in FY 2013, in its latest Asian Development Outlook 2012 supplement.

" India's economy remains sluggish, with sliding industrial production and declining exports," the supplement has stated.

According to this Supplement's findings, the surging economies of Southeast Asia have been a bright spot in an otherwise subdued 2012 growth performance in developing Asia, but the broader region should still pick up steam in 2013. Mixed third quarter data broadly support the forecasts in October's Asian Development Outlook 2012 Update for developing Asia, with downside developments slightly outweighing positive events.

Asia is also soft, pulled down by difficulties in its two largest economies-Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. Pacific economies, led by resource-rich Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands and Timor-Leste, are continuing to benefit from infrastructure rollouts which should support growth of 6% in 2012, but the expansion will moderate in 2013, the report says.

"Enduring debt problems and economic weakness in Europe and the looming fiscal cliff in the United States remain very real threats to developing Asia next year," said ADB Chief Economist Changyong Rhee. "At the same time there are highly encouraging signs from Southeast Asia and recent data from PRC confirms a bottoming out of the economy, with industrial output rebounding to a five-month high in October."

Malaysia and the Philippines outstripped expectations, with strong third quarter performance boosting ASEAN-5 growth forecasts from 5.6% to 5.9%. Third quarter expansion in the Philippines was a stellar 7.1%, more than double the rate from the same period a year earlier.

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