Indian markets to focus on “Vote on Account” next week

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Indian markets to focus on “Vote on Account” next week
The week gone by was not particularly good for stocks with Thursday suddenly seeing frantic selling, despite CPI data coming in better than expected.

Results were also a mixed bag this week with Hindalco Industries meeting expectations, while Cipla reported a dismal set of numbers. State Bank of India's results were largely in line with expectations.

Markets may continue to trade in a range next week, in the absence of any major triggers. However, on Monday Indian markets would closely watch the "Vote on Account", particularly for the fiscal deficit number. If the fiscal deficit number of 4.8 per cent is expected to be breached, markets could react negatively.

With the earning season now behind us, markets would also closely watch for international cues.

Comments from Janet Yellen, the Fed Chairwoman sparked a rally in global markets towards the early part of the week. With the Fed Tapering now having begun in right earnest, do not expect large scale foreign fund inflows into the domestic markets. However, if there are knee jerk reactions in other Asian and emerging markets, it could have an impact on the Indian markets.

FII trend this week suggest that foreign fund flows have been tempered and on some days they have been net selling in the markets.

In fact, on every rally the Indian markets have witnessed selling pressure, largely showing that it is "a sell on rise" market.

The rally in mid caps also seem to be fizzling out, except in pockets where the results from certain mid cap companies has been exceptional. These include the likes of Voltas and Aurobindo Pharma.

Next week markets are likely to stay in a range and would look for global cues. In the next one month or so, there could be the possibility of a pre-election rally based on the assumption that a NDA government led by Narendra Modi could assume charge at the Centre.

Clearly, expect volatility in the next few weeks as we draw closer to the elections.

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