Experts not very optimistic about growth, CPI & IIP in 2014-15: Media Report

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Experts not very optimistic about growth, CPI & IIP in 2014-15: Media Report
With the growth bottoming out in the current fiscal, experts are not very optimistic about the country's economic picture changing significantly in 2014-15 even if a new government comes to power after the general elections starting next month, reported PTI.

"My qualitative prediction do emerge from my assessment we got to address the structural bottlenecks. They will not bear fruits immediately but they will create momentum which will lay the foundation for more rapid growth," said Subir Gokarn, former Deputy Governor of RBI.

"So next year, I don't see the very significantly different from the current situation on any other front, (growth, CPI and IIP) except that of balance of payment to be little more comfortable than the last year" he said.

Gokarn, who is currently head of Director of research Brookings India, said food inflation has been there over 10 per cent for last six years.

"If we have food inflation over 10 per cent year on year, monetary policy essentially is constrained. Its ability to stimulate (growth) is limited. Whatever the position may be, the force, driver is going to play a limited role in reviving growth," he said.

Echoing similar views Nimesh Kampani, chairman of J M Financial, said the growth in the next fiscal would not be significantly different from 2013-14.

However, he said, "it can go up to 6.5-7 per cent in 2015-16 provided right kind of government comes in, right policy decision are taken and centre state relationship improves."

Painting an optimistic picture Surjit Bhalla Oxus Investments said that he expects GDP growth of about 7 per cent in the next fiscal.

Consumer Price Inflation is expected to be around 6 per cent, Index of Industrial production between 5-6 per cent, while GDP over 7 per cent in the next fiscal, Bhalla said.

Talking about rupee Gokarn said it has responded to narrowing of current account deficit and the correction got sharper than what was expected.

Dion Global Solutions Ltd.

Story first published: Thursday, March 27, 2014, 9:20 [IST]
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