Economic Survey 2014-15: 8.1%-8.5% GDP Growth Estimated For 2015-16

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The Economic Survey has forecast a GDP of between 8.1% - 8.5% for FY 2015-16. The survey also sees CPI in the range of 5-5.5 per cent and has painted an overall rosy picture for the economy.

The only negative aspect of the survey seems to be the farm output which is expected to lag behind in growth at 4 per cent.

Economic Survey 2014-15: 8.1%-8.5% GDP Growth Estimated For 2015-16
The Economic Survey also hinted at a further cut in fuel and fertilizer subsidies also pointing out that price subsidies do not appear to have had a transformative effect on the living standards of the poor.

Decline in oil prices provides incentive for growth, the Survey points out.

The fiscal deficit will be maintained at 4.1 per cent and it should be lowered to 3 per cent, in the medium term.

The Economic Survey 2014-15 also stated that liquidity conditions (money supply) have remained broadly balanced during 2014-2015 except for some temporary tight conditions due to delayed government expenditure.

Steps taken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) played a positive role in managing the liquidity conditions.

According to Economic Survey, FY 2014- 2015 saw some stress on the asset quality of the Scheduled Commercial Banks as there was an increase in gross NPA (Non Performing Advances) to the total gross advances.

NPA increased from 4.1 %( March 2014) to 4.5 %( September 2014). As on June 2014 , five subsectors, viz. Infrastructure, Textiles, Iron & Steel, Mining and aviation hold 54% of total stressed advances of Public Sector Banks.

The Economic Survey observes that manufacturing productivity in India lags behind other nations. The Survey points out that all Indian states exhibit declining share of manufacturing in the State GDP.

In addition, the Survey identifies that registered manufacturing couldn't bridge regional disparities in India.

In addition to this, registered manufacturing now in India has been identified as skill intensive which is not in line with the India's comparative advantage in unskilled labour.

The Economic Survey is presented a day ahead of the Union Budget and most analysts expect a pathbreaking Union Budget 2015-16, which will be presented in parliament by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley later tomorrow.

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Read more about: economic survey, fiscal deficit, gdp
Story first published: Friday, February 27, 2015, 12:41 [IST]
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