1 Year Of Narendra Modi Government: How 4 Economic Indicators Have Changed?

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Exactly at this time last year, we were all glued to our television sets eagerly awaiting the results of the country's national elections.

It's been a year of the Narendra Modi government and expectations which were running high exactly at the same time last year, have some what been tempered.

1 Year Of Narendra Modi Government: How 4 Economic Indicators Have Changed?

Stock markets which were euphoric have calmed down since hitting peaks 2 months ago. Take a look at home some of the key economic indicators and other barometers have changed under Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

1) Inflation

Rising prices has always remained the number one concern in election surveys. As we write CPI Inflation has hit a four month low of 4.76 per cent for the month of April.

This was largely on the back of a drop in food inflation. The reading has been dipping and to a large extent Narendra Modi and his government cannot take much credit for this because international commodity prices have dropped pushing inflation in India lower.

Crude oil which was trading around $100 when Narendra Modi took charge as the PM, is now trading at $66 a barrel.

If crude prices fall in tends to reduce prices in India because petrol and diesel prices dip, thus reducing transportation costs. Several other commodity prices have dipped, which has turned a blessing for the government.

2) Industrial Output Continues To Slump

Industrial output has been a huge disappointment. Most industrialists feel that nothing has changed on the ground. There is no uptick in demand and margins continue to be under pressure.

IIP data showed a growth of just 2 per cent for the month of March, which is not exactly buoyant. The previous months reading also has been lacklustre.

As we write two major companies into capital goods say that nothing much has changed. They do not see the scenario improving tremendously in the immediate quarters.

3) GDP Growth To Be a Healthy 7.4 Per cent

The government estimates that the GDP for fiscal 2014-15 will come in at 7.4 per cent. This is pretty healthy, but, the only problem is that a new method of GDP computation has been used and many economists are a little suspect on the method.

In any case if the same pace of growth continues, India will grow faster than China.

4) 15% Gains For the Sensex

This might not necessarily be an economic indicator, but, broadly reflects the mood of the economy, though sometimes it rallies also on the basis of liquidity.

The Sensex on the day Narendra Modi was elected closed at 24,122 points. As we write, it has gained more than 15 per cent and has closed at 27,324 points.

In fact, the Sensex had touched a high of as much as 30,000 points in trade. Most analysts continue to be bullish on the markets and it would be interesting to see how the markets play-off in the coming months.

All in all it may not have been an outstanding one year, but, at least we have seen some intent and direction. One may not give the Narendra Modi government a distinction, but he certainly deserves a first class.

The next one year will be crucial on what the government does with crucial reforms like implementation of the GST and the Land Acquisition Bill. At the moment there is every reason to be optimistic.

GoodReturns.in

Read more about: narendra modi, government, economy
Story first published: Saturday, May 16, 2015, 13:00 [IST]
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