India Not to Get Direct Hit From Greece; But Tremors May be Felt: ASSOCHAM

Indian economy is not really centric to Greece directly but if it defaults in its debt obligation and situation takes the form of a crisis in Europe, India could also feel the tremors like rest of the world, the ASSOCHAM said.

With over USD 355 billion foreign exchange reserves and the country promising to grow at the fastest rate in the world, India can withstand any pressure from Greek crisis. However, what is worrying is that the overall situation with regard to India's merchandise exports does not look promising this year and the troubles in Europe could only deteriorate the prospects, the chamber Secretary General Mr D S Rawat said.

Europe is India's largest trading partner with USD 129 billion of merchandise engagement in 2014-15. Of this the European Union bloc accounted for USD 97 billion with UK, Germany, France, Italy being the leading partners.

While there may not be a direct impact of Greek developments, it could be more on the outflows from the emerging markets including India and the spin off on the country's macro situation.

"There is need for RBI and the Finance Ministry to keep a close eye on the muddy global situation and its possible effect on India's capital flows and the currency movement", Mr Rawat said.

With Greek authorities closing banks for a week and imposing severe capital controls, the threat of global contagion must be dealt with a well-coordinated manner, he said.

The ASSOCHAM has already projected that India's total exports may be less than the USD 310 billion achieved last year. The growth, thus, has to be found within the domestic sector with global prospects looking dim as China has been facing worsening situation sending nervous signals to the world economy.

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