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6 Reasons Why Indian Stock Markets Could Rally In Jan 2016
A lot of uncertainty grips the market in the month of December. One is the US Fed meeting of Dec 15-16, where it is almost certain that the US Fed would hike interest rates. The other is the GST Bill, whose outcome is not certain at the moment, as opposition has stalled proceedings in the Rajya Sabha.
1) Fed uncertainty behind us
Finally, the uncertainty over interest rate hike in the US would end on Dec 16. It would be the first interest rate hike in the US, since June 2006. Finally, when the event is behind us, we could see a quick relief rally unfold.
2) Pre-Budget rally
With the budget slated in late Feb, there could be good buying interest in the month of Jan, as hopes would rest on the Union Budget. This could lead to a pre-budget rally.
3) GST Bill uncertainty behind
Like the US Fed, the fate of the GST Bill would be known, bringing about greater certainty.
4) Corporate results will begin to kick-in
Analysts believe that the corporate results this time, may not be as bad as the previous two quarters. If there is indeed an uptick in earnings, it could lead to gains in the markets.
5) Fall in oil prices good news for India
Oil continued to fall and as we write, it has hit a 7 year low. This augurs well for India's long term prospects, as it would reduce the fiscal deficit and help the current account deficit.
6) Valuations turning attractive again
Valuations are turning attractive all over again. Several blue chip stocks are trading at 52-week lows like TCS. Banking and pharma stocks have all fallen, making the valuations very compelling. This may lead to fresh buying in stocks.
7) Fall in commodity prices good news for markets
Fall in commodity prices like steel and other metals is good news as it coould boost infrastructure development in the country.
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