Markets Next Week: Monetary Policy, Global Cues Key To Further Upside

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It was a fantastic end to the market this week. Benchmark indices ended sharply higher on Friday with a 2 per cent rally, after moving in a range for most of the week.

Markets Next Week: Monetary Policy, Global Cues Key To Further Upside
Negative interest rates by the Bank of Japan and a surge in crude prices propelled indices across the globe and also in India. The negative interest rates along with a solid asset purchase programme already in place, pushed stock prices higher in Japan and around the globe. Most analysts were expecting very moderate action from the Bank of Japan.

It looks like the momentum on the upside would continue. However, for a sustained rally, one would have to closely watch how crude oil prices behave in the next few weeks. There were reports that there could be oil production cuts by major producers which bolstered oil process, which in turn led to a sharp rebound in stock prices.

Going forward, global cues, particularly crude oil prices would be key to how markets behave in the next few weeks.

Back home all eyes would be on the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy. Most analysts are expecting a status quo to be maintained on interest rates. However, a leading brokerage firm has said that there is a possibility of interest rates being also cut by 25 basis points by the Reserve Bank of India. Should that materialize, we could see a fresh rally in stocks.

The earnings season would also see a few select large cap PSU banks unveiling their results in the coming weeks. Most analysts would look for cues from banks, to see if asset quality has further deteriorated. Thus far there has been nothing spectacular on the earnings front.

The Feb series has begun on a buoyant note and it would be interesting to see, if the momentum can continue on the upside.

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