The Arc of the War · February

28
Feb

Operation Epic Fury & Lion's Roar launch

Military

US B-2s and Israeli F-35s strike simultaneously. Supreme Leader Khamenei killed. Iran declares national emergency.

4
Mar

Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz

Economic

150+ tankers anchored outside. Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM and Hapag-Lloyd suspend all transits. QatarEnergy declares force majeure.

19
Mar

US begins aerial campaign to reopen Strait

Military

Strikes on Iranian naval vessels and drone infrastructure. Iran retaliates with missile attacks on US carrier group.

3
Apr

763 schools, 307 hospitals damaged — UN

Humanitarian

OCHA Humanitarian Update No.02 records 115,193 civilian units damaged in five weeks of strikes across 20 provinces.

7
Apr

First conditional ceasefire agreed

Diplomatic

Two-week ceasefire announced. Iran appoints Khamenei's son as successor. Almost no shipping resumes through the Strait.

13
Apr

US imposes formal naval blockade on Iran

Economic

Pentagon estimates $4.8 billion in lost Iranian oil revenue by May 1. IEA member states release 400 million barrels of strategic reserves.

4
May

Operation Project Freedom launched

Military

Second major US offensive phase begins. Iran targets US warships; US retaliates with strikes on southern Iran and Tehran military sites on May 7.

9
Jun

Fragile ceasefire holds; Strait remains closed

Diplomatic

World's largest shipping operators continue to refuse Hormuz bookings. 500,000 containers stranded. 3,375+ civilian deaths confirmed. Talks ongoing.