Real GDP Growth
2026 Forecast
2.2%
Stable
Growth projections held steady from the prior SEP, signaling a soft-landing path remains intact.
Growth holding near trend suggests the economy is neither overheating nor sliding toward recession, giving the Fed room to stay patient.
Unemployment Rate
2026 Forecast
4.3%
Stable
Unchanged from the prior projection, pointing to a labor market cooling gradually rather than sharply.
A steady unemployment forecast implies the labor market is cooling gradually rather than cracking, reducing pressure for near-term rate cuts.
PCE Inflation
2026 Forecast
3.6%
↑ Well Above 2% Target
Revised higher from the prior SEP, keeping inflation well above the Fed's 2% target.
PCE inflation running well above target keeps the door open to further tightening, even as growth and jobs data stay steady.
Core PCE Inflation
2026 Forecast
3.3%
↑ Elevated
Also revised up, reinforcing that underlying price pressures remain sticky beyond food and energy.
Elevated core inflation strips out volatile food and energy prices, so its persistence is a more direct signal of underlying price pressure.
Fed Funds Rate
2026 Forecast
3.5–3.75%
On Hold — Hike Risk Rising
Rate held steady for now, but the tone shifts toward rising odds of a hike if inflation stays elevated.
Holding the range while inflation runs hot signals the committee is prioritizing caution, but rising hike odds show that patience has limits.
Officials Projecting Hike
2026 Forecast
9 of 18
Split Committee
Exactly half of officials now see a hike ahead, underscoring a genuinely divided committee.
A near-even split among voting officials signals genuine disagreement on the committee, adding uncertainty to the path of policy from here.