Probability of Global Recession — 12-Month Horizon

As assessed by major Wall Street banks · May 2026 latest estimates

GS 25% — Cut from 30%

JPM 40% — Elevated, maintained

CITI 35% — Revised from 40%

MS 30% — Reduced on data

DB 33% — Bond rout a key risk

IMF 5% — Tail risk elevated

GS 25% — Cut from 30%

JPM 40% — Elevated, maintained

CITI 35% — Revised from 40%

MS 30% — Reduced on data

DB 33% — Bond rout a key risk

IMF 5% — Tail risk elevated

Goldman Sachs

12-month US recession probability

▼ Cut from 30%

JPMorgan

Global recession probability

▲ Elevated, maintained

Citi Research

12-month global downturn

▼ Revised from 40%

Morgan Stanley

6–12 month US recession

▼ Reduced on data

Deutsche Bank

Global growth recession

▲ Bond rout a key risk

IMF Growth-at-Risk

Global GDP below 0.75% (1-yr), 5th percentile

▲ Tail risk elevated

⚠Risk Skew: Asymmetric to the Downside

Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and the IMF all flag that outcomes are not symmetrically distributed. The downside scenario — prolonged Hormuz closure, crude at $110–120/bbl, sustained financial conditions tightening — would push global growth to near-zero or below. The upside scenario (rapid Hormuz reopening, Brent to $90 by year-end) offers only a modest rebound.

In the IMF's own words: markets may not have fully priced more adverse scenarios.

Sources
Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research (May 2026) · JPMorgan Economic Research · Citi Global Economics · Morgan Stanley Research · Deutsche Bank Research · IMF GFSR April 2026 Growth-at-Risk Framework

Note: Recession probabilities are estimates and subject to revision. IMF figure represents probability of 1-year-ahead global real GDP growth falling below 0.75% under prevailing financial conditions (5th percentile of growth distribution).