Dalal Street / Macro Desk

Gold vs. the Dollar, vs. Treasury yields

How 24K gold in India has moved against the rupee's slide and US 10-year treasury yields through the 2025–26 rally — the classic safe-haven triangle, tracked month by month.

Jan 2025 – Jul 2026
Monthly, indicative levels
Gold in ₹/10g (24K)

18-month trend: three series, three axes

hover for monthly values
24K Gold, ₹/10g (left axis)
USD/INR (right axis)
US 10Y Treasury Yield, % (far-right axis)
Note: monthly levels are compiled and interpolated from multiple public sources (Goodreturns, Cleartax, Rupeezy, Trading Economics, FRED, Naga Markets) to show directional trend — not tick-level or officially reconciled time-series data. Treat as indicative for editorial/context use; verify exact levels against exchange/RBI data before publishing precise figures.

What moved what

the three-way read
Gold ↔ USD/INRMostly positive

Unusually, both climbed together through most of this period — global dollar strength usually caps gold, but a weakening rupee made imported gold costlier in INR terms even as global (USD) gold softened at points, amplifying the domestic rally.

Gold ↔ 10Y YieldInverse, with lag

Gold's steepest leg up (into the March 2026 peak) came as yields eased toward the low-4% range; the subsequent correction from ₹1.69 lakh tracked yields climbing back above 4.5% on hawkish Fed signalling and oil-driven inflation fears.

USD/INR ↔ 10Y YieldPositive

Higher US yields pulled in dollar demand and pressured EM currencies broadly; INR's slide to an all-time low of ~96.9 on 20 May 2026 coincided with a firmer-for-longer US rate outlook, tariff overhang, and a Hormuz-driven oil spike.