CPI hits 4.82%, highest since Dec 2024, as RBI holds repo at 5.25%
Retail inflation rose for a fourth straight month in August, narrowing the real policy rate to about 0.4 percentage points. The RBI's October MPC decision is due tomorrow (Oct 7).
CPI inflation · Aug 2026
4.82%
▲ from 4.45% in Jul
RBI repo rate
5.25%
Held · neutral stance
Real policy rate
0.43 pp
Repo minus Aug CPI
Food inflation · Aug
5.95%
▲ from 5.52%
Next CPI release
Oct 12
Sep data · TE forecast 4.9%
2–6%
RBI's tolerance band around its 4% target. CPI is inside it but has moved above 4% since June, the first time in 17 months. Energy prices, a weaker rupee and an uneven monsoon are the main drivers cited.
Within band
CPI inflation vs repo rate
% YoY · Sep is Trading Economics forecast (dashed)
RBI inflation projection by quarter, FY27
% · Q1 from June policy, Q2–Q4 from August policy · repo rate shown as line
Where August inflation is hottest
% YoY by category, Aug 2026
RBI policy corridor
% · after the August 2026 decision
CPI components: index level, Aug vs Jul 2026
Click a column header to sort. Month-on-month change calculated from index points.
Component↕
Aug↕
Jul↕
MoM %↕
Signal↕
Data calendar
Recent and upcoming releases
Date
Event
Actual
Previous
Consensus
TE forecast
Aug 05
RBI rate decision
5.25%
5.25%
5.25%
5.25%
Sep 14
CPI YoY (Aug)
4.82%
4.44%
4.8%
4.7%
Oct 07
RBI rate decision Tomorrow
–
5.25%
5.5%
5.5%
Oct 12
CPI YoY (Sep) Upcoming
–
4.82%
–
4.9%
Dec 04
RBI rate decision
–
–
–
–
Inflation drivers
Energy price surge since the Middle East war began, plus rupee pressure
Food and beverages at 5.95%; transport at 4.6%
Restaurants and accommodation at 8.38%; personal care and misc. at 15.17%
Aggressive El Niño weighing on key crops
RBI's latest stance
Repo unchanged at 5.25%; stance neutral; SDF 5.00%, MSF 5.50%
FY27 GDP forecast raised to 6.7% from 6.6%
FY27 CPI projected to average 5.0% (earlier 5.1%); core 4.3%
Governor Malhotra in July: pressures "largely supply-side"
Long-run context
CPI: record high 12.17% (Nov 2013); record low 0.25% (Oct 2025); average 5.57% since 2012
Repo: record high 14.50% (Aug 2000); record low 4.00% (May 2020)
TE projects CPI ~4.0% in 2027 and 4.1% in 2028
TE projects the policy rate at 5.75% in 2027 and 5.25% in 2028