Eight hikes in ten years: two in 2018, six in the 2022–23 cycle. The dashed step is the 25 bps scenario.
Basis points per hike. 300 bps in total, 250 of it in 2022–23.
| Month | Hike | New repo | Cycle |
|---|
Every hike in the window came in a month RBI changed the rate at a scheduled review, except May 2022, an off-cycle meeting.
| Date | Change (bps) | New repo % | Move |
|---|
The 4 Oct 2016 cut to 6.25% is included as the rate in force when the 10-year window opens.
Adjust the loan. Rates are illustrative; your lender's spread and reset date decide the real number.
| Loan | Rate | EMI today | EMI at +25 bps | Extra / month |
|---|
Standard reducing-balance EMI. Home loans linked to the repo rate reset at least every three months, so most existing borrowers see the new EMI or tenure after the festive weeks. New loans priced off the new repo rate can cost more straight away.
Decision announced. Banks start repricing new floating-rate loans in the days after.
Showroom and booking peak begins. Buyers financing a car or home face new-loan pricing first.
Peak delivery day for two-wheelers and cars.
Existing repo-linked loans are still mostly on the old EMI.
Quarterly resets push the higher EMI onto household budgets. 4 Dec is the next MPC date.
Not in a way the data isolates. Festive auto retail followed fuel prices, credit supply and the post-Covid base more than the repo rate.
| Festive season | Repo backdrop | Auto retail (FADA) | Other drivers |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | TWO HIKES IN JUN, AUG 6.50% | −11% (PV −14%, 2W −13%) | NBFC liquidity squeeze, high fuel prices |
| 2022 | +50 BPS ON 30 SEP 5.90% | +57% in Navratri week | Weak Covid-hit 2021 base; +16% vs 2019 |
| 2023 | HELD 6.50% | +19% over 42 days | Rural two-wheeler recovery |
| 2024 | HELD 6.50% | +11.8% over 42 days | Heavy PV discounts, pent-up demand |
| 2026 so far | HELD 5.25% | Cars about +20% in the first festive phase | Demand at a five-year high before Navratri |
2018 and 2022 are the only comparable hike-year festivals and they point in opposite directions, so treat any single-number forecast with suspicion. The sharper risk this year is for households that borrowed to buy at the new rate, not a drop in showroom footfall.