1
Fed minutes tone on rate hike risk
Markets are pricing a 60%+ chance of an October rate hike. If the minutes read more hawkish than expected — particularly any hints that the committee discussed moving at July — expect short-term rates to jump and growth stocks to sell off.
A hawkish surprise in the minutes would sharply raise the odds of an earlier or larger hike, hitting rate-sensitive growth names hardest.
2
Big bank earnings guidance
JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Citigroup typically set the tone for the broader earnings season. Watch for commentary on loan demand, credit quality, and how corporate clients are navigating a "higher for longer" rate environment.
These three banks are the earnings-season bellwether — their tone on credit and loan demand shapes sentiment for the rest of financials.
3
Semiconductor sector stabilisation
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF fell 4.5% last Thursday as investors rotated out of AI-linked names, with NVIDIA pulling back 1.4% and Micron sliding 5.5%. Watch whether this is consolidation or the start of a more sustained AI trade unwind.
How the sector trades next will signal whether this is a healthy pause in the AI trade or the start of a deeper rotation out of semiconductors.