In a Bloomberg survey, the currency expert at ING based out of Singapore has estimated the rupee's forecast for the year end at 76.50 even as the currency is making a rebound. At 11:08, the rupee gained ground and was trading at a day's high of 73.23 per US dollar.
But the most bearish outlook by the economist is on the back of crude oil price which is likely to dampen the current account deficit of the economy heavily.
The new lower-end forecast further signals another 4% depreciation from the currency's Friday's close at 73.32 per US dollar. In an interview, with the international news agency, the economist said, "is highly correlated with oil prices, which are definitely moving higher, and that's going to make the current-account situation more difficult". Also, he added the risk factor to it ahead of the key general assembly elections slated next year.
Further, risk is the opinion polls for two of the states, wherein winning of the opposition is predicted for the Rajasthan state whereas a close contest is expected in the state of Madhya Pradesh.
Further, downside threat to the rupee, is the heavy foreign fund outflow which triggered a global market sell-off a week back.
Also, RBI's inflation targeting mandate is seen as another deterred for the rupee in the time to go by with the central bank not acting pro-actively on it.