El Nino Danger! When Will Monsoon Arrive In India? Delhi, Mumbai To Bengaluru, Check Rains Predictions & Dates

We have already covered half of June, and there are no signs of rains yet. The reason is possibility of a dangerous and worser-than-ever-seen, El Nino this year. In India, El Nino is likely to arrive in 12 states severely. These includes Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana and Gujarat among others.

El Nino 2026 Predictions For India

As of now, IMD has forecasted below-average monsoon in India for 2026. Also, the probability of distribution of rainfall across states is expected to be skewed due to deficit rainfall.

At present, the rainfall deficit has widened to 40% in India.

IMD also observed the sea surface temperatures which indicate the development of El Nino conditions during the monsoon. Also, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a significant chance of at least a moderate-strength El Niño developing over June - September.

According to CareEdge report, the impact of a poor monsoon will be felt in agriculture and rural demand, as lower rainfall constrains crop output and weighs on farm incomes. This could, in turn, translate into broader price pressures through elevated food inflation.

India Monsoon 2026 Forecast:

IMD predicts that rainfall over the country in June - September is likely to be 90% of the long-period average (LPA), which is lower from 92% estimated earlier.

CARE's report cited that while some areas in Northwest and Northeast India, as well as other regions, are expected to receive normal or above-normal rainfall, the monsoon core zone (MCZ), which includes most of the country's rainfed agricultural areas, is most likely to receive below-normal rainfall. The probability distribution of rainfall is skewed towards deficient rainfall, with an 84% likelihood of sub-normal conditions, higher than 66% projected in April 2026

El Nino To Impact These States:

As per the CARE's report, states like Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh emerge as relatively more vulnerable to the forthcoming El Niño episode. In contrast, the major states of Gujarat, Telangana, Haryana and Rajasthan appear relatively better placed to withstand potential weather-related disruptions.

However, an agriculture ministry report pointed out that El Nino effect is likely to be more severe in 12 states. These are Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Odisha, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Maharashtra.

During his weekly review meeting on Kharif 2026 preparations, Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said, "In 9-10 states where the impact of El Nino may be relatively higher, coordinated meetings should be organised with District Magistrates, Agriculture Departments, Krishi Vigyan Kendras (KVKs) and other extension systems of the identified districts."

Can India Withstand El Nino?

Overall, CARE Edge report pointed out that while the forecast of below-normal rainfall and the likely emergence of El Niño pose clear risks to agriculture, rural demand, and food inflation, India appears better prepared than in past episodes.

It added, structural shifts in the economy, such as higher irrigation coverage, an increasing share of the non-agriculture sector, and gradual diversification within the agriculture sector to livestock, fisheries, etc., have reduced the direct macroeconomic sensitivity to rainfall shocks. Additionally, this year India benefits from higher reservoir levels and strong buffer stocks of wheat and rice, which add resilience.

However, CARE's note also said, overall vulnerability remains uneven across states, with some states being more vulnerable due to weaker irrigation and crop patterns. Going forward, close monitoring of monsoon progress, inflation trends, and regional stress points will be crucial. On balance, the impact of El Niño may be manageable at the aggregate level, though localised disruptions cannot be ruled out.

Mumbai Monsoon Weather

When Will Rains Arrive In Mumbai?

For the next 24 hours, IMD predicts partly cloudy sky with hot and humid conditions very likely in city and suburbs. Possibility of light rain/thundershower towards night/early morning. Maximum & Minimum temperatures likely to be around 35 deg. C. and 29 deg. C.

But in the next 48 hours, possibility of light rain/thundershower towards night/early morning. Maximum & Minimum temperatures likely to be around 35 deg. C. and 29 deg. C.

Majority are expecting that monsoon could officially begin from June 25th in Mumbai and neighboring regions.

Delhi Monsoon Weather

When Will Rains Start In Delhi?

For Delhi/NCR, IMD believes possibility of light to moderate rains with thunderstorms and lightening is high from June 18-20th. It said, "Thunderstorms accompanied with lightning and gusty winds (40-50 kmph reaching up to 60 kmph) with dust raising surface winds are likely to occur."

Bengaluru Monsoon Weather

When Will Rains Arrive In Bengaluru?

IMD is expecting light to moderate rains over Ballari, Bengaluru (Rural), Bengaluru (Urban), Chamarajanagara, Chikkaballapura, Chikkamagaluru, Chitradurga, Davanagere, Hassan, Kodagu, Kolar, Mandya, Mysuru, Ramanagara, Shivamogga, Tumakuru and Vijayanagara districts.