Performance of Top Crypto Assets In July: Key Insights For Investors

The world of crypto investing is as exciting as it is unpredictable. With the market shifting to bullish undertones in 2024, it is essential for new and seasoned investors to analyse the charts frequently and gather trends that can play out in the upcoming months.

We, at Giottus, aim to decipher some of these for you leading into August. Today we cover the performance of top assets including Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL) while identifying narratives that have been doing well in the past few weeks. Let's get started.

A mixed July for BTC

July has been a mixed month for the crypto asset class globally. While Bitcoin was up 3% overall, there were two halves to the story. A bearish first half and a bullish second half. Bitcoin breached several key support zones and went below $54,000. This was triggered by fears of a huge sale of BTC by Mt. Gox investors as well as by the US and German governments.

However, Bitcoin rallied strongly post this with positive indications from the US presidential elections as well as from the launch of Ethereum spot ETFs and indications of interest rate cuts in the US as early as September. BTC eventually hit $70,000 amid class for new all-time highs. This week, it has endured a downturn.

Looking at the Bitcoin chart, we identify key support zones at $63,500 and then at $60,000. If BTC holds $64,000 and bounces off a declining trendline, it can rally back to $70,000 in the coming days. However, the probability of a further decline and consolidation (to $60,000) is strong this month.

BTC/USDT chart. Source: TradingView, Binance

Bitcoin's dominance (BTC.D), the measure of how altcoins are performing, is another interesting story. BTC.D zoomed past its 55% consolidation range in July and surged to 57% - underlying the strong performance of Bitcoin against all other crypto assets. This was also augmented by a lacklustre debut for Ethereum spot ETFs even though some altcoin narratives did well. We expect BTC.D to remain robust at 56% in the coming days.

BTC Dominance chart. Source: TradingView, Binance

Ethereum sinks post ETF debut, Solana shines against it

From a monthly low of $2,850, Ethereum rallied to $3,500 ahead of its spot ETF debut in the US. However, in a typical case of sell-the-news event, ETH put in many red days immediately after and is currently trading near $3,200. This was aided by net negative flows from Greyscale's ETH ETF. However, we believe that this trend is abating and Ethereum can recover soon. Against Bitcoin, Ethereum is inching up to claim the critical 0.05 support zone in an ascending trendline.

ETH/BTC chart. Source: TradingView, Binance

Solana had an impressive end to July and put in new highs against Ethereum in the process. Solana-based memecoins have surged as a result with WIF, MEW, and BOME gaining good fanfare. Solana is slowly becoming a strong #3 to Bitcoin and Ethereum given its institutional support as well as its retail adoption in the past 8 months.

Some narratives are emerging as strong

Outside of the top 3, BNB, XRP, and TON are doing well among large altcoins. The trend, however, points to the emergence of AI, RWA (real-world assets), and gaming as horses to back in this bull market. AI tokens - FET, RENDER, and AIOZ - are leading our tracking lists. RWA platforms, which aid in tokenisation and trade of physical assets, are also an emerging narrative gaining momentum. ONDO and PENDLE are key contenders in this list. Among gaming, we are tracking SUPER and NAKA.

While meme-coins are doing well, we advise against investing more than 2% of one's crypto portfolio in them. These are high beta plays that can lose 80-90% value in days.

Consolidation likely in early August

We look forward to a consolidation in prices in early August with top crypto assets retesting their key support zones. A bounce of these will provide momentum for the second half where the upcoming interest rate cut narrative will drive prices. In such consolidation, it is prudent to stay away from using leverage to trade as liquidations can happen either way (long or short). Here is hoping for the best scenario to play out.