GLOBAL OUTLOOK
Global inflation has been pushed higher by demand pressures, including those from the lagged effects of earlier policy support, and supply shocks, including disruptions to both global supply chains and the availability of key commodities. In some countries, inflation has also
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been spurred by large currency depreciations relative to the U.S. dollar, as well as tight labor market conditions.
Inflation remains high worldwide and well above central bank targets in almost all inflation targeting economies. Although inflation is likely to gradually moderate over the course of the year, there are signs that underlying inflation pressures could be becoming more persistent. In response, central banks around the world have been tightening policy faster than previously expected. Monetary policy tightening in advanced economies, a strong U.S. dollar, geopolitical tensions, and high inflation have dampened risk appetite and led to widespread capital outflows and slowing bond issuance across EMDEs. Financial conditions have particularly worsened for less creditworthy EMDEs, especially if they are also energy importers.
Fiscal space has narrowed considerably, and concerns over debt sustainability in many countries have risen as global financial conditions have made it more difficult to service debt loads that have accumulated rapidly in recent years, particularly during the pandemic. Nonetheless, many governments have announced new support measures to shield households and firms from the effects of sharply rising prices, slowing the pace of fiscal consolidation as pandemic-related stimulus is withdrawn.
Most commodity prices have eased, to varying degrees, largely due to the slowdown in global growth and concerns about the possibility of a global recession. By historical standards, however, they remain elevated, prolonging challenges associated with energy and food insecurity. Crude oil prices have steadily declined from their mid- 2022 peak; meanwhile, natural gas prices in Europe soared to an all-time high in August but have since fallen back toward pre-invasion levels. Non-energy prices, particularly metal prices, have declined alongside weak demand. While food prices have eased from earlier peaks, food price inflation remains very high in some EMDEs.
INDIAN ECONOMY Introduction The Indian economy, however, appears to have moved on after its encounter with the pandemic, staging a full recovery in FY22 ahead of many nations and positioning itself to ascend to the pre-pandemic growth path in FY23. Yet in the current year, India has also faced the challenge of reining in inflation that the European strife accentuated. Measures taken by the government and RBI, along with the easing of global commodity prices, have finally managed to bring retail inflation below the RBI upper tolerance target in November 2022. However, the challenge of the depreciating rupee, although better performing than most other currencies, persists with the likelihood of further increases in policy rates by the US Fed. The widening of the CAD may also continue as global commodity prices remain elevated and the growth momentum of the Indian economy remains strong. The loss of export stimulus is further possible as the slowing world growth and trade shrinks the global market size in the second half of the current year.
India’s Economic Resilience and Growth Drivers Monetary tightening by the RBI, the widening of the CAD, and the plateauing growth of exports have essentially been the outcome of geopolitical strife in Europe. As these developments posed downside risks to the growth of the Indian economy in FY23, many agencies worldwide have been revising their growth forecast of the Indian economy downwards. These forecasts, including the advance estimates released by the NSO, now broadly lie in the range of 6.5-7.0 per cent. Despite the downward revision, the growth estimate for FY23 is higher than for almost all major economies and even slightly above the average growth of the Indian economy in the decade leading up to the pandemic. IMF estimates India to be one of the top two fast-growing significant economies in 2022. Despite strong global headwinds and tighter domestic monetary policy, if India is still expected to grow between 6.5 and 7.0 per cent, and that too without the advantage of a base effect, it is a reflection of India’s underlying economic resilience; of its ability to recoup, renew and re-energise the growth drivers of the economy.
SOLAR POWER SECTOR IN INDIA • Due to its favourable location in the solar belt (400 S to 400 N), India is one of the best recipients of solar energy with abundant availability. • Solar power installed capacity has increased by more than 18 times, from 2.63 GW in March 2014 to 63.3 GW at the end of 2022. • In 2022, till November, India has added 12 GW of solar power capacity. • In the first half of 2022, India has saved US$ 4.2 billion in fuel costs through solar power generation, as well as 19.4 million tonnes of coal. • India has generated 70.24 BU of solar power in the first nine months of 2022, a 36% YoY increase. • The Bhadla Solar Park in Rajasthan’s Jodhpur district is the largest solar power plant in the world. Spanning 14,000 acres, the power plant is fully operational and has a capacity of 2,250 MW. • Delhi’s Indira Gandhi International Airport (IGIA) has become the first Indian airport to run entirely on hydro and solar power. Around 6% of the airport’s electricity requirement is met from the onsite solar power plants. • In November 2021, the government announced future plans to increase the funding under the PLI scheme for domestic solar cells and module manufacturing to RS. 24,000 crore (US$ 3.17 billion) from the existing Rs. 4,500 crore (US$ 594.68 million) to make India an exporting nation. • The world's largest floating 600 MW solar energy project will be constructed at the Omkareshwar Dam in the Khandwa district of Madhya Pradesh at the estimated cost of Rs. 3,000 crore (US$ 3.84 billion). The project is expected to begin power generation by FY23.
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