GLOBAL OUTLOOK
Global growth has slowed to the extent that the global economy is perilously close to falling into recession—defined as a contraction in annual global per capita income—only three years after emerging from the pandemic-induced recession of 2020. Very high inflation
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has triggered unexpectedly rapid and synchronous monetary policy tightening around the world to contain it, including across major advanced economies. Although this tightening has been necessary for price stability, it has contributed to a significant worsening of global financial conditions, which is exerting a substantial drag on activity. This drag is set to deepen given the lags between changes in monetary policy and its economic impacts, and the fact that real rates are expected to continue to increase.
Asset prices have been in broad, synchronous decline, investment growth has weakened substantially, and housing markets in many countries are worsening rapidly. Shockwaves continue to emanate from the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine, especially in energy and other commodity markets. Against this backdrop, confidence has fallen precipitously. The worlds three major engines of growth—the United States, the euro area, and China—are undergoing a period of pronounced weakness, with adverse spillovers for emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), many of which are already struggling with weakening domestic conditions.
Global inflation has been pushed higher by demand pressures, including those from the lagged effects of earlier policy support, and supply shocks, including disruptions to both global supply chains and the availability of key commodities. In some countries, inflation has also been spurred by large currency depreciations relative to the U.S. dollar, as well as tight labor market conditions.
Inflation remains high worldwide and well above central bank targets in almost all inflation targeting economies. Although inflation is likely to gradually moderate over the course of the year, there are signs that underlying inflation pressures could be becoming more persistent. In response, central banks around the world have been tightening policy faster than previously expected. Monetary policy tightening in advanced economies, a strong U.S. dollar, geopolitical tensions, and high inflation have dampened risk appetite and led to widespread capital outflows and slowing bond issuance across EMDEs. Financial conditions have particularly worsened for less creditworthy EMDEs, especially if they are also energy importers
INDIAN ECONOMY Introduction The Indian economy, however, appears to have moved on after its encounter with the pandemic, staging a full recovery in FY22 ahead of many nations and positioning itself to ascend to the pre-pandemic growth path in FY23. Yet in the current year, India has also faced the challenge of reining in inflation that the European strife accentuated. Measures taken by the government and RBI, along with the easing of global commodity prices, have finally managed to bring retail inflation below the RBI upper tolerance target in November 2022. However, the challenge of the depreciating rupee, although better performing than most other currencies, persists with the likelihood of further increases in policy rates by the US Fed. The widening of the CAD may also continue as global commodity prices remain elevated and the growth momentum of the Indian economy remains strong. The loss of export stimulus is further possible as the slowing world growth and trade shrinks the global market size in the second half of the current year.
India’s economic growth in FY23 has been principally led by private consumption and capital formation. It has helped generate employment as seen in the declining urban unemployment rate and in the faster net registration in Employee Provident Fund. Still, private capex soon needs to take up the leadership role to put job creation on a fast track. Recovery of MSMEs is proceeding apace, as is evident in the amounts of Goods and Services Tax (GST) they pay, while the Emergency Credit Linked Guarantee Scheme (ECGLS) is easing their debt servicing concerns. The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) has been directly providing jobs in rural areas and indirectly creating opportunities for rural households to diversify their sources of income generation. Schemes like PM-Kisan and PM Garib Kalyan Yojana have helped in ensuring food security in the country, and their impact was also endorsed by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The results of the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) also show improvement in rural welfare indicators from FY16 to FY20, covering aspects like gender, fertility rate, household amenities, and women empowerment.
Macroeconomic and Growth Challenges in the Indian Economy The impact of the pandemic on India was seen in a significant GDP contraction in FY21. The following year, FY22, the Indian economy started to recover despite the Omicron wave of January 2022. This third wave did not affect economic activity in India as much as the previous waves of the pandemic did since its outbreak in January 2020. Mobility enabled by localised lockdowns, rapid vaccination coverage, mild symptoms and quick recovery from the virus contributed to minimising the loss of economic output in the January-March quarter of 2022. Consequently, output in FY22 went past its pre-pandemic level in FY20, with the Indian economy staging a full recovery ahead of many nations. The experience with the Omicron variant engendered a cautious optimism that it was possible to stay physically mobile and engage in economic activities despite the pandemic. FY23 thus opened with a firm belief that the pandemic was rapidly on the wane and that India was poised to grow at a fast pace and quickly ascend to the pre-pandemic growth path.
With monetary tightening, the US dollar has appreciated against several currencies, including the rupee. However, the rupee has been one of the better-performing currencies worldwide, but the modest depreciation it underwent may have added to the domestic inflationary pressures besides widening the CAD. Global commodity prices may have eased but are still higher compared to pre-conflict levels. They have further widened the CAD, already enlarged by India’s growth momentum. For FY23, India has sufficient forex reserves to finance the CAD and intervene in the forex market to manage volatility in the Indian rupee.
TELECOMMUNICATION SECTOR IN INDIA 1. INCREASING MOBILE SUBSCRIBERS • India is the second-largest smartphone market in the world. India’s mobile subscriber base is expected to reach 1,420 million by 2024 from 1,200 million in 2018. • By 2022, the 4G user base is expected to reach 820 million.
2. UNTAPPED RURAL MARKETS • Tele-density of rural subscribers reached 57.46% in March 2022.
3. RISING INTERNET PENETRATION • Internet penetration is expected to grow steadily and is likely to be bolstered by Government policy. • Number of broadband subscribers reached 846.57 million in March 2023. • To encourage cash economy, Indian Government announced to provide free Wi-Fi to more than 1,000 gram panchayats.
4. DEVELOPMENT OF TELECOM INFRASTRUCTURE • TRAI has made several recommendations for the development of telecom infrastructure, including tax benefits and recognising telecom infrastructure as essential infrastructure.
5. GROWTH IN MVAS • Indian Mobile Value-Added Services (MVAS) industry is expected to row at a CAGR of 18.3% during the forecast period of 2015-2020 and reach US$ 23.8 billion by the end of 2020
6. TELECOM ADVERTISING MARKET • According to a Zenith Media survey, India is expected to become the fastest growing telecom advertisement market, with an annual growth rate of 11% between 2020 and 2023
7. TELECOM ADVERTISING MARKET • In order to overcome the cash related problems being faced by people, due to demonetisation, Paytm launched a service through which consumers and merchants can pay and receive money instantly, without an internet connection. • Payments on unified payments interface (UPI) hit an all-time high of 97.88 million (by volume), with transactions worth ~?12.98 trillion (US$ 157.85 billion) in January 2023
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