GLOBAL ECONOMY AT LARGE
Navigating Global Divergences
The baseline forecast is for global growth to slow from 3.5 percent in 2022 to 3.0 percent in 2023 and 2.9 percent in 2024, well below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.8 percent. Advanced economies are expected to slow
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from 2.6 percent in 2022 to 1.5 percent in 2023 and 1.4 percent in 2024 as policy tightening starts to bite. Emerging market and developing economies are projected to have a modest decline in growth from 4.1 percent in 2022 to 4.0 percent in both 2023 and 2024. Global inflation is forecast to decline steadily, from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 6.9 percent in 2023 and 5.8 percent in 2024, due to tighter monetary policy aided by lower international commodity prices. Core inflation is generally projected to decline more gradually, and inflation is not expected to return to target until 2025 in most cases.
Monetary policy actions and frameworks are key at the current juncture to keep inflation expectations anchored. Chapter 2 documents recent trends in inflation expectations at near- and medium-term horizons and across agents. It emphasizes the complementary role of monetary policy frameworks, including communication strategies, in helping achieve disinflation at a lower cost to output through managing agents’ inflation expectations. Given increasing concerns about geo-economic fragmentation, Chapter 3 assesses how disruptions to global trade in commodities can affect commodity prices, economic activity, and the green energy transition.
Growth Forecast for Emerging Market and Developing Economies For emerging market and developing economies, growth is projected to decline relatively modestly, from 4.1 percent in 2022 to 4.0 percent in both 2023 and 2024, with a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point for 2024 compared with the July 2023 WEO Update projection. However, this average path hides regional divergences, with growth in two of the five main geographic regions rising in 2023 and then falling in 2024.
Growth in emerging and developing Asia is projected to rise from 4.5 percent in 2022 to 5.2 percent in 2023, then to decline to 4.8 percent in 2024, with downward revisions of 0.1 percentage point and 0.2 percentage point for 2023 and 2024, respectively, compared with July projections. The revision reflects a lower forecast for China, which is revised downward by 0.2 percentage point for 2023 and by 0.3 percentage point for 2024 to growth of 5.0 percent in 2023 and 4.2 percent in 2024. With the property market crisis in that country, lower investment is the main contributor to the revision. Growth in India is projected to remain strong, at 6.3 percent in both 2023 and 2024, with an upward revision of 0.2 percentage point for 2023, reflecting stronger-than-expected consumption during April-June.
Growth in emerging and developing Europe is projected to rise to 2.4 percent in 2023, with an upward revision of 0.6 percentage point since July, before declining to 2.2 percent in 2024. The forecast for Russia is for a rise from –2.1 percent in 2022 to 2.2 percent in 2023, with an upward revision of 0.7 percentage point for 2023. The rise in growth reflects a substantial fiscal stimulus, strong investment, and resilient consumption in the context of a tight labor market. The upward revision for the region for 2023 also reflects an increase of 5.0 percentage points to the forecast for Ukraine to growth of 2.0 percent; the increase is due to stronger-than-expected domestic demand growth, with firms and households adapting to the war in that country amid sharply declining inflation and stable foreign exchange markets. It additionally reflects a 1.0 percentage point upside revision to growth of 4.0 percent in Türkiye, on the back of stronger-than-expected domestic demand.
Latin America and the Caribbean is expected to see growth decline from 4.1 percent in 2022 to 2.3 percent in both 2023 and 2024, although with 0.4 percentage point and 0.1 percentage point upward revisions for 2023 and 2024, respectively, since July. The decline for 2023 reflects a normalization of growth along with the effect of tighter policies, a weaker external environment, and lower commodity prices. The upward revision to 2023 since July reflects stronger-than-expected growth in Brazil, revised upward by 1.0 percentage point to 3.1 percent, driven by buoyant agriculture and resilient services in the first half of 2023. Consumption has also remained strong, supported by fiscal stimulus. The upward revision for the region also reflects stronger-than-expected growth in Mexico, revised upward by 0.6 percentage point to 3.2 percent, with the delayed post pandemic recovery taking hold in construction and services and spillovers from resilient US demand.
Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia is projected to decline from 5.6 percent in 2022 to 2.0 percent in 2023, before picking up to 3.4 percent in 2024, with a 0.5 percentage point downward revision for 2023 and a 0.2 percentage point upward revision for 2024. The change for 2023 is attributable mainly to a steeper-than-expected growth slowdown in Saudi Arabia, from 8.7 percent in 2022 to 0.8 percent in 2023, with a negative revision to the latter of 1.1 percentage point. The downgrade for growth in Saudi Arabia in 2023 reflects announced production cuts, including unilateral cuts and those in line with an agreement through OPEC+. Private investment, including that from “gigaproject” implementation, continues to support non-oil GDP growth, which remains strong and unchanged from previous projections. The downgrade for 2023 also reflects cuts to the growth forecast for Sudan to about –18.3 percent (a downward revision of nearly 20 percentage points) reflecting the outbreak of conflict, deteriorating domestic security, and the worsening humanitarian situation. The upgrade for 2024 reflects the unwinding of some of the announced production cuts. In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected to decline to 3.3 percent in 2023 before picking up to 4.0 percent in 2024, with 0.2 percentage point and 0.1 percentage point downward revisions for 2023 and 2024, respectively, and with growth remaining below the historical average of 4.8 percent. The projected decline reflects, in a number of cases, worsening weather shocks, the global slowdown, and domestic supply issues, including, notably, in the electricity sector. Growth in Nigeria is projected to decline from 3.3 percent in 2022 to 2.9 percent in 2023 and 3.1 percent in 2024, with negative effects of high inflation on consumption taking hold. The forecast for 2023 is revised downward by 0.3 percentage point, reflecting weaker oil and gas production than expected, partially as a result of maintenance work. In South Africa, growth is expected to decline from 1.9 percent in 2022 to 0.9 percent in 2023, with the decline reflecting power shortages, although with a 0.6 percentage point upward revision thanks to the intensity of power shortages in the second quarter of 2023 being lower than expected.
Inflation Outlook: Gradual Decline to Target Global headline inflation is expected to steadily decline from its peak of 8.7 percent in 2022 (annual average) to 6.9 percent in 2023 and 5.8 percent in 2024 (Table 1.1). The forecast for 2024 is revised upward by 0.6 percentage point, reflecting higher-than-expected core inflation. On a year-over-year basis, projected global headline inflation peaked at 9.5 percent in the third quarter of 2022 and is projected to reach 5.9 percent by the fourth quarter of 2023 before falling to 4.8 percent in the fourth quarter of 2024, still above the pre pandemic (2017–19) annual average of about 3.5 percent. Although monetary tightening is starting to bear fruit, a central driver of the fall in headline inflation projected for 2023 is declining international commodity prices. Nearly three-quarters of economies are expected to see lower headline inflation in 2023, but the pace of disinflation is especially pronounced for advanced economies (Figure 1.18). These economies are expected to see (annual average) inflation fall by 2.7 percentage points in 2023, about double the (1.3 percentage point) decline projected for emerging market and developing economies. Part of this difference reflects advanced economies’ benefiting from stronger monetary policy frameworks and communications, which facilitate disinflation (Chapter 2), but the difference also reflects lower exposure to shocks to commodity prices and exchange rates. In low-income developing countries, inflation is on average projected to be in double digits and is not expected to fall until 2024.
INDIAN INDUSTRY OVERVIEW Strong economic growth in the first quarter of FY23 helped India overcome the UK to become the fifth-largest economy after it recovered from the COVID-19 pandemic shock. Real GDP at constant prices (2011-12) in the first quarter of 2023–24 is estimated at ? 40.37 trillion (US$ 484.94 billion), showing a growth of 7.8% as compared to the first quarter of 2022-23 estimated at ? 37.44 trillion (US$ 449.74 billion). Given the release of pent-up demand and the widespread vaccination coverage, the contact-intensive services sector will probably be the main driver of development in 2022–2023. In 2023-24 (April-September), India’s service exports stood at US$ 164.89 billion. Furthermore, India’s overall exports (services and merchandise) in 2023-24 (April-September) were estimated at US$ 376.29 billion. Rising employment and substantially increasing private consumption, supported by rising consumer sentiment, will support GDP growth in the coming months.
Future capital spending of the government in the economy is expected to be supported by factors such as tax buoyancy, the streamlined tax system with low rates, a thorough assessment and rationalisation of the tariff structure, and the digitization of tax filing. In the medium run, increased capital spending on infrastructure and asset-building projects is set to increase growth multipliers, and with the revival in monsoon and the Kharif sowing, agriculture is also picking up momentum. The contact-based services sector has largely demonstrated promise to boost growth by unleashing the pent-up demand over the period of April-December 2022. The sector's success is being captured by a number of HFIs (High-Frequency Indicators) that are performing well, indicating the beginnings of a comeback.
India has emerged as the fastest-growing major economy in the world and is expected to be one of the top three economic powers in the world over the next 10-15 years, backed by its robust democracy and strong partnerships.
India's appeal as a destination for investments has grown stronger and more sustainable as a result of the current period of global unpredictability and volatility, and the record amounts of money raised by India-focused funds in 2022 are evidence of investor faith in the "Invest in India" narrative.
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS India is primarily a domestic demand-driven economy, with consumption and investments contributing to 70% of the economic activity. With an improvement in the economic scenario and the Indian economy recovering from the Covid-19 pandemic shock, several investments and developments have been made across various sectors of the economy. According to World Bank, India must continue to prioritise lowering inequality while also putting growth-oriented policies into place to boost the economy. In view of this, there have been some developments that have taken place in the recent past.
GOVERNMENT INITIATIVES Over the years, the Indian government has introduced many initiatives to strengthen the nation's economy. The Indian government has been effective in developing policies and programmes that are not only beneficial for citizens to improve their financial stability but also for the overall growth of the economy. Over recent decades, India's rapid economic growth has led to a substantial increase in its demand for exports. Besides this, a number of the government's flagship programmes, including Make in India, Start-up India, Digital India, the Smart City Mission, and the Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation, are aimed at creating immense opportunities in India.
ROAD AHEAD In the second quarter of FY24, the growth momentum of the first quarter was sustained, and high-frequency indicators (HFIs) performed well in July and August of 2023. India's comparatively strong position in the external sector reflects the country's generally positive outlook for economic growth and rising employment rates. India ranked 5th in foreign direct investment inflows among the developed and developing nations listed for the first quarter of 2022.
India's economic story during the first half of the current financial year highlighted the unwavering support the government gave to its capital expenditure, which, in 2023-24, stood 37.4% higher than the same period last year. In the budget of 2023-24, capital expenditure took lead by steeply increasing the capital expenditure outlay by 37.4% in BE 2023-24 to ?10 lakh crore (US$ 120.12 billion) over ? 7.28 lakh crore (US$ 87.45 billion) in RE 2022-23. The ratio of revenue expenditure to capital outlay increased by 1.2% in the current year, signalling a clear change in favour of higher-quality spending. Stronger revenue generation because of improved tax compliance, increased profitability of the company, and increasing economic activity also contributed to rising capital spending levels.
Since India’s resilient growth despite the global pandemic, India's exports climbed at the second-highest rate with a year-over-year (YoY) growth of 8.39% in merchandise exports and a 29.82% growth in service exports till April 2023. With a reduction in port congestion, supply networks are being restored. The CPI-C inflation reduction from June 2022 already reflects the impact. In September 2023 (Provisional), CPI-C inflation was 5.02%, down from 7.01% in June 2022. With a proactive set of administrative actions by the government, flexible monetary policy, and a softening of global commodity prices and supply-chain bottlenecks, inflationary pressures in India look to be on the decline overall.
INDIAN MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY INTRODUCTION Manufacturing is emerging as an integral pillar in the country’s economic growth, thanks to the performance of key sectors like automotive, engineering, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and consumer durables. The Indian manufacturing industry generated 16-17% of India’s GDP pre-pandemic and is projected to be one of the fastest growing sectors.
The machine tool industry was literally the nuts and bolts of the manufacturing industry in India. Today, technology has stimulated innovation with digital transformation a key aspect in gaining an edge in this highly competitive market.
Technology has today encouraged creativity, with digital transformation being a critical element in gaining an advantage in this increasingly competitive industry. The Indian manufacturing sector is steadily moving toward more automated and process-driven manufacturing, which is projected to improve efficiency and enhance productivity.
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