GLOBAL OUTLOOK
The global economy remains in a precarious state amid the protracted effects of the overlapping negative shocks of the pandemic, the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine, and the sharp tightening of monetary policy to contain high inflation. Global financial
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conditions have tightened as a result of policy rate hikes and, to a lesser extent, recent bouts of financial instability.
Energy prices have eased considerably since their peak in 2022 on account of weaker global growth prospects and a warmer-than-expected Northern winter, which reduced natural gas and electricity consumption. Metal prices increased in early 2023, reflecting signs of a stronger-than anticipated recovery in China, but subsequently retraced those gains. Pressures on global supply chains have abated as goods demand has weakened and global shipping conditions have improved. Energy prices have eased considerably since their peak in the third quarter of 2022. A warmer-than expected northern hemisphere winter reduced natural gas and electricity consumption, especially in Europe. Energy prices could be lower if global demand is weaker than expected. In this respect, prospects in China play a particularly important role, as it is expected to account for more than half of the increase in global oil demand in 2023. On the upside, risks to the price forecast relate to a lack of expansion in U.S. oil production, low levels of spare capacity among OPEC members, and to the possibility that the cartel may decide to cut output further. (Source: Global Economic Prospects June 2023)
INDIAN ECONOMY: Global economic recovery was well on track until the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out in February 2022. The conflict has now continued for almost a year, disrupting the restoration of the supply chains disrupted earlier by lockdowns and limited trade traffic. In the last eleven months, the world economy has faced almost as many disruptions as caused by the pandemic in two years. The conflict caused the prices of critical commodities such as crude oil, natural gas, fertilisers, and wheat to soar. This strengthened the inflationary pressures that the global economic recovery had triggered, backed by massive fiscal stimuli and ultra-accommodative monetary policies undertaken to limit the output contraction in 2020. Inflation in Advanced Economies (AEs), which accounted for most of the global fiscal expansion and monetary easing, breached historical highs. Rising commodity prices also led to higher inflation in the Emerging Market Economies (EMEs), which otherwise were in the lower inflation zone by virtue of their governments undertaking a calibrated fiscal stimulus to address output contraction in 2020. (Sources: Economic Survey 2023)
INFRASTRUCTURE Summary 1.HIGH BUDGETARY ALLOCATION FOR INFRASTRUCTURE 2.INCREASING PRIVATE SECTOR INVOLVEMENT 3.IMPROVEMENT IN LOGISTICS
REAL ESTATE SECTOR: Summary •In India, the real estate sector is the second-highest employment generator, after the agriculture sector. •Real estate sector in India is expected to reach US$ 1 trillion by 2030. By 2025, it will contribute 13% to the country’s GDP. •Rapid urbanisation bodes well for the sector. The number of Indians living in urban areas is expected to reach 542.7 million by 2025 and 675.5 million by 2035. •Construction is the third-largest sector in terms of FDI inflow. FDI in the sector (including construction development & activities) stood at US$ 55.50 billion from April 2000-December 2022. •Home sales across top eight cities in India surged 68% YoY to reach ~308,940 units in 2022, signifying a healthy recovery in the sector.
India’s IT market size growing •The cloud market in India is expected to grow three-fold to US$ 7.1 billion by 2022 with the help of growing adoption of big data, analytics, artificial intelligence and Internet of Things (IoT), according to Cloud Next Wave of Growth in India report. •Spending on information technology in India is expected to reach US$ 144 billion in 2023. •In November 2021, Mr. Piyush Goyal, Minister of Commerce and Industry, Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution and Textiles, lauded the Indian IT sector for excelling its competitive strength with zero government interference. He further added that service exports from India had the potential to reach US$ 1 trillion by 2030. •India’s digital economy is estimated to reach US$ 1 trillion by 2025.
Strong growth in IT exports •According to STPI (Software Technology Park of India), software exports by the IT companies connected to it stood at ? 1.20 lakh crore (US$ 16.29 billion) in the first quarter of FY22. •In August 2021, the Minister of Electronics and Information Technology, Skill Development and Entrepreneurship, Mr. Rajeev Chandrasekhar, announced that the IT export target is set at US$ 400 billion for March 2022. In addition, the central government plans to focus on areas such as cybersecurity, hyper-scale computing, artificial intelligence and blockchain. •Exports from the Indian IT industry are expected to be around US$ 178 billion in FY22.
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