Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent both in 2025 and 2026, below the historical (2000–19) average of 3.7 percent. The forecast for 2025 is broadly unchanged from that in the October 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO), primarily on account of an upward revision in the United States
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offsetting downward revisions in other major economies. Global headline inflation is expected to decline to 4.2 percent in 2025 and to 3.5 percent in 2026, converging back to target earlier in advanced economies than in emerging market and developing economies. Medium-term risks to the baseline are tilted to the downside, while the near-term outlook is characterized by divergent risks. Upside risks could lift already-robust growth in the United States in the short run, whereas risks in other countries are on the downside amid elevated policy uncertainty. Policy-generated disruptions to the ongoing disinflation process could interrupt the pivot to easing monetary policy, with implications for fiscal sustainability and financial stability. Managing these risks requires a keen policy focus on balancing trade-offs between inflation and real activity, rebuilding buffers, and lifting medium-term growth prospects through stepped-up structural reforms as well as stronger multilateral rules and cooperation.
Forces Shaping the Outlook The global economy is holding steady, although the degree of grip varies widely across countries. Global GDP growth in the third quarter of 2024 was 0.1 percentage point below that predicted in the October 2024 WEO, after disappointing data releases in some Asian and European economies. Growth in China, at 4.7 percent in year-over-year terms, was below expectations. Faster-than-expected net export growth only partly offset a faster-than-expected slowdown in consumption amid delayed stabilization in the property market and persistently low consumer confidence. Growth in India also slowed more than expected, led by a sharper-than-expected deceleration in industrial activity. Growth continued to be subdued in the euro area (with Germany’s performance lagging that of other euro area countries), largely reflecting continued weakness in manufacturing and goods exports even as consumption picked up in line with the recovery in real incomes. In Japan, output contracted mildly owing to temporary supply disruptions. By contrast, momentum in the United States remained robust, with the economy expanding at a rate of 2.7 percent in year-over-year terms in the third quarter, powered by strong consumption.
Global disinflation continues, but there are signs that progress is stalling in some countries and that elevated inflation is persistent in a few cases. The global median of sequential core inflation has been just slightly above 2 percent for the past few months. Nominal wage growth is showing signs of moderation, alongside indications of continuing normalization in labor markets. Although core goods price inflation has fallen back to or below trend, services price inflation is still running above pre–COVID-19 averages in many economies, most notably the United States and the euro area. Pockets of elevated inflation, reflecting a range of idiosyncratic factors, also persist in some emerging market and developing economies in Europe and Latin America. Where inflation is proving moresticky, central banks are moving morecautiously in the easing cycle while keeping a close eye on activity and labor market indicators as well as exchange rate movements. A few central banks are raising rates, marking a point of divergence in monetary policy.
Global financial conditions remain largely accommodative, again with some differentiation across jurisdictions (see Box 1). Equities in advanced economies have rallied on expectations of more business friendly policies in the United States. In emerging market and developing economies, equity valuations have been more subdued, and a broad-based strengthening of the US dollar, driven primarily by expectations of new tariffs and higher interest rates in the United States, has kept financial conditions tighter.
Economic policy uncertainty has increased sharply, especially on the trade and fiscal fronts, with some differentiation across countries (Figure 1). Expectations of policy shifts under newly elected governments in 2024 have shaped financial market pricing in recent months. Bouts of political instability in some Asian and European countries have rattled markets and injected additional uncertainty regarding stalled progress on fiscal and structural policies. Geopolitical tensions, including those in the Middle East, and global trade frictions remain elevated.
INDIAN ECONOMY OVERVIEW Domestic Economy Remains Steady Amidst Global Uncertainties As per the first advance estimates released by the National Statistical Office, Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation (MoSPI), the real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for FY25 is estimated to be 6.4 per cent. From the angle of aggregate demand in the economy, private final consumption expenditure at constant prices is estimated to grow by 7.3 per cent, driven by a rebound in rural demand. PFCE as a share of GDP (at current prices) is estimated to increase from 60.3 per cent in FY24 to 61.8 per cent in FY25. This share is the highest since FY03. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) (at constant prices) is estimated to grow by 6.4 per cent.
On the supply side, real gross value added (GVA) is also estimated to grow by 6.4 per cent. The agriculture sector is expected to rebound to a growth of 3.8 per cent in FY25. The industrial sector is estimated to grow by 6.2 per cent in FY25. Strong growth rates in construction activities and electricity, gas, water supply and other utility services are expected to support industrial expansion. Growth in the services sector is expected to remain robust at 7.2 per cent, driven by healthy activity in financial, real estate, professional services, public administration, defence, and other services. The analysis of growth trends in this chapter, hereinafter, is mostly based on the trends in the first half (H1) of FY25, on which the information base is more comprehensive.
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