Will Fuel & LPG Prices Rise In August? Oil Price Shock And Hormuz War to Weigh on Household Budgets: Experts

LPG prices in India might increase as early as this weekend as Brent crude prices stay well above $87 per barrel and tensions in the Middle East continue to put pressure on oil while the rupee batters against the US dollar, making import costs higher than they already are.

Sixty percent of over 140 crore people in Indian households use LPG as their primary cooking fuel, and since the US-Iran war began on February 28, domestic LPG cylinder prices in India have risen by 10.43%, and commercial LPG prices have risen by 19.42%.

A domestic 14.2 Kg LPG cylinder costs Rs 942 in New Delhi today, and a commercial 19 Kg one is priced at Rs 2,930, while the same costs Rs 944.50 and Rs 3,021.00, respectively, in Bengaluru on Wednesday, according to Goodreturns.in.

Higher crude and international LPG prices directly affect cooking gas prices, which include LPG and PNG prices, especially now with the US Senate initiating a sweeping sanctions bill targeting Russia's energy sector, which, if passed, would give US President Donald Trump the authority to impose tough sanctions on Russian officials and levy tariffs of up to 100% on countries such as India and China to discourage them from purchasing Russian oil and gas.

"This is not a natural commodity cycle," said Fraser McKay, Head of Upstream Analysis at Wood Mackenzie. "The price surge reflects geopolitical conflict, not underlying demand, and companies are well aware of it.

"The oil and gas industry came into 2026 bracing for a difficult year. What it got was a price surge, an unplanned cash windfall, and a set of strategic pressures that, if anything, have grown more urgent."

Brent crude has skyrocketed to $120 before cooling off to $87 per barrel on Wednesday, but over the past few months since February 28, it has risen roughly $15-$16 per barrel when it traded near $72.50.

Oil marketing companies in India will revise their LPG prices with effect from August 1, 2026, which is one of the biggest changes to expect next month. Indian Oil, HPCL, and BPCL revise prices of 5 kg, 10 Kg, 14.2 Kg and 19 Kg LPG cylinders on the first of every month. They can either hike, cut, or keep the LPG rates unchanged.

On July 1, 2026, Brent crude oil traded around $72 per barrel, hovering above the sub-$70 mark, but currently it is trading over $85, so the possibility of oil marketing companies hiking prices remains high. This is simple math and a little logic.

Crude oil is the biggest variable behind fuel and LPG pricing, and the recent jump in global oil prices has changed the equation for Indian consumers. While oil marketing companies have several factors to consider before revising cylinder rates, a sustained rise in crude prices increases pressure on their margins. With Brent crude moving significantly higher than June levels and global supply concerns resurfacing, the August LPG price revision will be closely watched. Consumers should keep an eye on international oil trends, as any prolonged surge could eventually reflect in domestic cooking gas and fuel costs.