Heightened risks sapping slower global recovery: IMF

Business

oi-Sunil

By Sunil Fernandes

Published: Tuesday, October 9, 2012, 8:38 [IST]

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has presented a gloomier picture of the global economy than a few months ago, saying prospects have deteriorated further and risks increased. Overall, the IMF's forecast for global growth was marked down to 3.3 percent this year and a still sluggish 3.6 percent in 2013.

In its latest World Economic Outlook, unveiled in Tokyo ahead of the IMF-World Bank 2012 Annual Meetings, the IMF said advanced economies are projected to grow by 1.3 percent this year, compared with 1.6 percent last year and 3.0 percent in 2010, with public spending cutbacks and the still-weak financial system weighing on prospects.
Growth in emerging market and developing economies was marked down compared with forecasts in July and April to 5.3 percent, against 6.2 percent last year. Leading emerging markets such as China, India, Russia, and Brazil will all see slower growth. Growth in the volume of world trade is projected to slump to 3.2 percent this year from 5.8 percent last year and 12.6 percent in 2010.

"Low growth and uncertainty in advanced economies are affecting emerging market and developing economies through both trade and financial channels, adding to homegrown weaknesses," said IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard.
India's growth forecast cut to 4.9%

The IMF has slashed its forecast for 2012 to 4.9% from 6.2% in July, saying that domestic structural sluggishness remains, amid a worsening global economy.

"India's activity suffered from waning business confidence amid slow approvals for new projects, sluggish structural reforms, policy rate hikes designed to rein in inflation and flagging external demand," the fund said in its World Economic Outlook report.

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