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Markets unlikely to be on fire post diwali; stay cautious


 Markets unlikely to be on fire post diwali; stay cautious
With the fiscal cliff in the US still a nagging worry and the Greece debt crisis back to the fore, it's unlikely that the Indian markets will stage a superlative rally through the remainder of the year.

On the domestic front too, the euphoria over the reforms process has died down and the RBI has held interest rates steady. There are hardly any local cues with the earnings season now out of the way, the markets are at most expected to trade within a range.


However, the real issue now would be how the fiscal cliff in the US would be resolved and whether lawmakers in the US strike common ground.

Earlier this week, the euphoria over Barack Obama's victory quickly faded away as US stock markets slumped the most since June as Wall Street was hit by fears that American policymakers may not be able to avert the looming fiscal cliff of USD 600 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts that may even push the world's largest economy into a recession.

In Europe data from Germany got worst and reports on Greece was not too encouraging. The country's cash resources have almost depleted and unless it gets its next tranche of loan, there could be chaos. Global worries almost always drag most of the indices lower, including India's.

Domestically, results of most corporates, apart from a few like State Bank of India (rising NPAs) and Tata Steel were on expected lines. Tata Steel, however, was a huge disappointment given that markets had expected a profit and the company ended up with losses.

Markets are unlikely to move much in the coming week, given that the week is a truncated one, owing to Diwali holiday. This might also ensure low volumes.


It's best to stay away from investing at the current levels, considering too many uncertainties, particularly globally.

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