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Tread cautiously next week; Santa rally seems to be fading


Tread cautiously next week; Santa rally seems to be fading
December is always a good month for equities, which is why a rally in stocks is called a "Santa rally" amongst marketmen. This week markets lost momentum and closed lower for the second week in succession on fears over the fiscal cliff in the US. The last full week of trading for 2012 is likely to be volatile, given that the US has to resolve its fiscal cliff crisis in just one week or face Bush era tax cuts.

Investors are advised to stay away from the market given that it's a period of uncertainty and due to the Christmas holiday season, which may not see many investors, including foreign funds willing to take positions.


Trading on Monday may be weak given the sharp downside in the US markets on Friday. Domestically, there are not many cues given that the RBI policy is now behind. Investors would continue to look forward to corporate results which are slated for next month before any up move. It's likely that until then investors would like to adopt a wait and watch policy.

Whatever action does happen, it is likely to be in the high beta names, which have been rallying for the last few weeks. These include names from the metals and the real estate pack. In fact, PSU banking stocks have also been seeing some action with hopes that rate cut would augur well and in the long term would help these banks trim their non performing assets.

Results from major corporate are expected to be tepid, given that it was a difficult quarter. Globally, things in Europe seem to have quietened down with Greece now getting aid.
It's likely to be a period of lull, before we usher in the next year. Given that we have rallied almost 25% this year it's almost unlikely that markets would rally more than 10% going forward in 2013.

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