How global institutions are busy lowering India's growth rates?

Updated: Tuesday, July 23, 2013, 18:45 [IST]

While government officials are sounding buoyant on India's economic recovery, some of the reputed global institutions including the IMF, World Bank, Asian Development Bank and others are busy cutting India's growth rates. Take a look at some of the predictions on India's growth rates, which point to perhaps one of the worst phases of economic growth in almost a decade.

IMF pegs India's growth rates at 5.6%

The International Monetary Fund earlier this month lowered India's growth forecast for 2013-14 to 5.6% from the 5.8% it projected in April. According to the IMF risks of a longer downturn in emerging market economies had increased because of domestic capacity constraints, slowing credit growth and weak external demand.

Slow progress in pushing reforms, says ADB

The Asian Development Bank this week lowered India's GDP forecast to 5.8 per cent from 6 per cent earlier. "In India... Slow progress in pushing through the reforms needed to ease business bottlenecks means growth is likely to be 5.8 per cent this year, slower than the previously forecast 6.0 per cent," an Asian Development Outlook Supplement said.

OECD the most pessimistic

OECD's prediction on India's growth rates is perhaps the most pessimistic. "India, Asia's third-largest economy, is likely to grow 5.3 percent in 2013," the OECD said, lower than the November forecast of 5.9 percent.

Growth rates likely at 5.7%, says World Bank

The World Bank lowered India's growth outlook for the current fiscal to 5.7% from 6.1% estimated earlier. It also lowered the world growth rates to 2.2 per cent.

Morgan Stanley is more optimistic

Morgan Stanley said India's economy is likely to grow at 6 per cent in FY14 due to factors like lower-than-expected expansion in the current fiscal (at around 5 per cent) along with challenging domestic and external environment.
"We have reduced our GDP forecast for FY14 to 6 per cent from 6.2 per cent (due to) the still-challenging domestic and external environments," the American investment bank's economist, Chetan Ahya, said in a research note.