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CAD to be much lower than initially forecast: FM

By Super

CAD to be much lower than initially forecast: FM
Buoyed by better-than-expected first quarter current account deficit (CAD) numbers, Finance Minister P. Chidambaram said he was confident of closing the fiscal with a better set of numbers than initially projected.

The Minister also said economic growth closer to 5.5 per cent should be considered satisfactory, and that there was "still some speculation" in the forex markets. CAD for April-June was $21.8 billion or 4.9 per cent of GDP. The government's target for the financial year is $70 billion or 3.7 per cent of GDP.

"I think we will be comfortably below $70 billion. At the moment, I will stick to $70 billion. When the second-quarter numbers are announced, then I will give a better number," Mr. Chidambaram told reporters on the sidelines of a functionhere.

Mr. Chidambaram said the first quarter CAD was "exaggerated by the very sharp rise in gold imports in April and May." He said the total quantity of gold imported in the first quarter was about 345 tonnes.

"In the second quarter, I have seen up to September 25, gold import is only about 63 or 64 tonnes. So, there is a sharp compression in gold imports. So if you net out gold imports, we'll find that CAD is a very manageable number."

The Minister reiterated that he would not allow the red lines drawn on CAD and the fiscal deficit to be breached. When we draw a red line, we will remain within the red line," Mr. Chidambaram said.

CAD, which is the difference between foreign exchange earned and spent, touched a historic high of 4.8 per cent of GDP in the previous financial year.

Concerns about CAD increased as foreign investors began pulling out of the country after the U.S. Fed hinted at withdrawing its easy money policy earlier than expected. As a result, the rupee fell and lost close to 30 per cent between April 2 and September 3.


Story first published: Thursday, October 3, 2013, 9:28 [IST]
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