There are millions of Indians working in the Middle East and the US who look for currency exchange rates before they remit money to India.
Let's take the case of millions of workers and middle level executives who work in the Middle East. They eagerly watch currency rate movements, because they get more or less money depending on how the rupee has moved against the dollar in India.
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What many Indian expatriates working abroad do is they hold onto remitting money for a few months in order to get a better rate. The rates against the Saudi Rial, Qatari Rial, AED Dhirham or any other Middle East country would depend on how the dollar moves against the rupee in India.
Should they hold onto money or remit now?
The rupee is now trading at 63.62 to the dollar. Chances are that it might go past the 64 levels in the next few weeks. What this means that Indians working abroad might get a better rate against their local currency and hence they could repatriate money later.
Let us now see why the rupee could fall a little more against the dollar. The problem for the Indian currency is that it gets sentimentally affected by emerging market currencies. The Russian Rouble suddenly collapsed and trigerred a fall in the Indian Rupee.
India's trade deficit has also surprised on the negative side. To compound woes Foreign Funds have been buying dollars, which has further put pressure on the rupee. Clearly, the rupee might be headed a little lower and one would not be surprised if it touches 65 to the dollar in the next one month.
For Indian expatriates working in the US and the Middle East, it makes sense to wait for some more time as they could get good rates if they wish to remit money. For example, if the dollar falls to 65 against the rupee, an expatriate working in Dubai might ending-up getting closer to Rs 17.80 against the Dhirham.
Having said that predicting the rupee movement against the dollar is always a hazard. As things stand the chances of a further decline for the rupee against the dollar are bright.