Those talking of a pre-Budget Sensex Rally should look at some very interesting statistics. In the last 10 years, the Sensex has only had two pre-budget rallies. In Feb 2006, the Sensex had rallied almost 8.5 per cent from Dec 31, 2005 levels.
On most other occasions there has been a decline in the Sensex. Take a look at some interesting statistics in the last 10 years.
|Year||Sensex Closing||Pre-budget Closing||Gain|
|31, December 2004||6602||6569||-0.51|
|31, December 2005||9398||10198||8.55|
|31, December 2006||13786||13478||-2.23|
|31, December 2007||20286||17824||-12.24|
|31, December 2008||9647||9634||-0.3|
|31, December 2009||17464||16254||-6.93|
|31, December 2010||20509||17700||-13.69|
|31, December 2011||15454||17675||14.37|
|31, December 2012||19426||19152||
|31, December 2013||
As can be seen from the above data only on two occasions has the Sensex rallied in almost two decades. This years stocks are marginally higher as compared to December 31, 2014 levels. How far they move from here is difficult to gauge. But, expect immense volatility in the days to come.