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Monsoon Scare: CRISIL Slashes FY 2015-16 GDP Forecast By 0.50%


Noted Indian rating agency, CRISIL has slashed its GDP forecast by 50 basis points, for FY 2015-16 citing predictions of a poor monsoon by a number of agencies.


Monsoon Scare: CRISIL Slashes FY 2015-16 GDP Forecast By 0.50%
"We revise our GDP growth forecast down by 50 basis points to 7.4 per cent from 7.9 per cent, and expect agriculture growth to be 1.5 per cent on a weak base of 0.2 per cent in FY15. On the demand side, we expect consumption revival to be moderate, cushioned somewhat by lower inflation and interest-rate cuts," the rating agency said.

"A second straight year of weak monsoon will decrease the efficacy of India's irrigation ecosystem
and hit agricultural output and farmers adversely. This will also have negative implication on rural demand. Already, unseasonal rain and hailstorm in March have impaired the rabi-or winter--crop."

This will show up in weak agriculture growth in Q1 FY16. Given this backdrop, we expect the revival in consumption to be lower than estimated earlier - rising to 6.6 per cent from 6.3 per cent in FY15.

The Met department had on Tuesday said that the country was likely to get only 88 per cent of the normal rainfall this monsoon season, down from the 93 per cent forecast it had made a month earlier.

A host of other agencies had also predicted poor monsoons in India.

Read more about: crisil monsoon
Story first published: Wednesday, June 3, 2015, 12:13 [IST]
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