Less than a week ahead of the Indian general election results, an international brokerage said that NSE's benchmark index Nifty 50 may see a correction of up to 15 percent if a non-NDA government is formed at the Centre.
Following its opinion polls and field visits to Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Rajasthan, Swiss brokerage UBS Securities said that there is "no big wave visible either way with election activity perceptibly quieter than in 2014." It further said that the ruling BJP may suffer a setback in UP and is likely to gain in WB.
In the 2014 general elections, UP had delivered 71 seats to BJP's kitty, while it could secure only two seats of the 42 in West Bengal.
The brokerage further said that the positive impact of populist schemes is "not a given".
In a note it discussed possible scenarios and how the market will react to it. It said that if a non-NDA government has to be formed, Nifty will correct by 10-15 percent, while NDA winning less than 250 seats in the 543-member House will lead to near term volatility till actual government formation.
However, if the BJP-led NDA wins over 250 seats, the Nifty could move up by 5 percent to touch its recent peak, while BJP winning a single-handed majority could move the benchmark up by 5-10 percent, it said.
Further, it said that exit polls, which will start coming on the evening of 19 May after the last vote is cast, have not been accurate for the last three national elections.
In 2004, the exit polls wrongly forecasted BJP-led NDA coalition winning again, while in 2009 they underestimated Congress-led UPA's seat share, it said.
However, it noted that "markets will watch these results (of exit polls) closely though and there could be some impact."