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7 Drivers Of Indian Markets This Week
It is a short week for the Indian markets with exchanges remaining closed on Monday (Eid) and Thursday (Independence Day). After a 900 points rally in the last two trading days, the following domestic and international factors will drive the markets for the week-ended 16 August.
1. IIP data
The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data was released after market closing hours on Friday. Government data showed that India's factory output growth slowed down to 2 percent in June, a 4-month low.
2. Inflation data
Inflation data is scheduled to be released this week. CPI Inflation and WPI inflation data for the month of July will be known on 13 and 14 August, respectively.
3. Balance of trade
India's balance of trade data or difference between imports and exports will be released on 14 August.
4. Update on FPI surcharge
The rally in the stock markets on 8 and 9 August was on account of the news of likely measures to be announced by the government to subside pressure on the markets following the announcement of surcharge on high income individuals.
Amid the US-China trade war and the surcharge, equity markets lost its appeal for large foreign investors who moved to bonds and gold instead, crippling the slowing economy further. Investors now await any measures that may be announced by the Indian government in their favour.
5. Q1 Earnings
Major companies like Sun Pharma, Coal India, ONGC, Bharat Forge and Glenmark Pharma are set to announce their financial results for the June quarter, this week.
6. Rupee
The Indian rupee dipped against the US dollar last week due to depreciation in the Chinese yuan and political tensions involving J&K. The domestic currency lost 2.9 percent in value to 70.79 a dollar in August so far and fell for fifth consecutive week.
China's central bank held yuan's midpoint weaker than 7 for the three consecutive session on Monday. It is also the eighth consecutive trading day that the People's Bank of China has guided the currency lower.
If the rupee slips further from dollar's gains, it is likely to benefit Indian IT stocks.
7. Global factors
Macro data on GDP, Inflation and industrial production as well as sales are to be released in the US, European area, China and Japan.
Last week, after the closing of Indian market hours, the UK released its GDP data for the June quarter. Official data showed that the United Kingdom's GDP shrank in the April-June period at 0.2 percent, its first contraction since 2012.
The pound sterling, which is already under pressure over a possible "No-Deal Brexit", sank to $1.2056, its weakest since January 2017.
If the UK reports another contraction for the September-ended quarter, the country will technically enter recession, which is defined as two back-to-back quarters of economic contraction.
