362% Returns In Gold + 213% In Silver In 15 Years: Gold May Hit Rs 1,71,00 By Next Dhanteras; Key Factors

The auspicious moment of Dhanteras is finally celebrated on November 6, 2026. This is for the Hindu calendar year, Samvat 2083. Gold and silver demands are usually on the rise during Dhanteras; however, the year 2026 has been both bitter and sweet. From last Dhanteras to the current year, gold and silver recorded their lowest gains in four years. But in the long term, precious metals have given multi-bagger returns to investors. Despite the latest volatility, gold is predicted to hit the Rs 171,000 mark by next Dhanteras.

362% Returns In 15 Years: Gold

From last year's Dhanteras to this year, gold has surged by 15.04%, as per Kedia Advisory data. This is the lowest return compared to 60.30% gains in 2025 Dhanteras, 33% upside in 2024 Dhanteras, and 18% surge in 2023 Dhanteras.

Over the past 15 years, gold has given negative performance from 2013 to 2015, 2017, and 2021 Dhanteras. This means gold has given positive returns in 10 Dhanteras out of the past 15 Dhanteras in terms of year-on-year performance. The best returns were seen last year.

In the longest run, gold has skyrocketed by 361.74% in 15 years. As of November 5, 2026, 24-carat gold price stood at Rs 146,109 per 10 grams compared to Rs 31,643 per 10 grams in 2012. Gold has outperformed silver.

213% Returns By Silver

From the last year's Dhanteras to the current one, silver performed better than gold with nearly 22% returns. However, this would still be the lowest return by silver in 3 years. Silver had gained by 41% in 2024 and strongest by 59% in 2025.

But in the long term, gold has given better returns. For starters, in the past 15 years of Dhanteras, silver has fallen six times in comparison to gold.

Also, silver has surged by over 213% in the past 15 years. The 999 purity silver stood at Rs 60,920 per 1 Kg in 2012 and rose to Rs 190,946 per 1Kg as of November 5, 2026.

"Gold has delivered an extraordinary absolute return of nearly 200% over the past five years, from Dhanteras 2021 to the run-up ahead of Dhanteras 2026. The price of gold in the domestic market has surged from Rs 47,600 per 10 grams in Nov'21 to approximately Rs 1,42,750 in late Oct'26 before Dhanteras, translating into a phenomenal CAGR of 24.53%," said analysts at Axis Direct in their note.

They also pointed out that current gold prices appear attractive for investors, having corrected more than 20% from their peak. This presents long-term investors who missed the rally with a compelling opportunity to add gold in a staggered manner to their existing portfolios.

Gold To Hit Rs 1,71,000 By Next Dhanteras

"We may expect some volatility in the yellow metal due to hike interest rate. However, should favourable developments materialise, we expect gold to deliver returns of approximately 20-25% by next Dhanteras, with target prices of Rs 1,65,000-Rs 1,71,000," analysts at Axis added.

Here are the key factors that will impact gold by next Dhanteras, as per Axis Direct.

1. Permanent Ceasefire Between the US and Iran:

Diplomatic efforts are underway to secure a peace deal between Iran and the US. A lasting ceasefire could provide significant relief to global markets by easing supply concerns and moderating inflationary pressures. This could reduce the need for further rate hikes, putting downward pressure on bond yields and the US dollar. Such a
development could provide a fresh boost to gold prices.

2. Interest Rate Cuts

Hstorically, Federal Reserve monetary policy has played a crucial role in influencing precious metal prices. Higher interest rates tend to weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset, while lower rates generally improve its appeal.

In 2026, the conflict and elevated inflation concerns have strengthened expectations of further monetary tightening, with markets anticipating another rate hike in December. However, if inflation moderates and the Fed begins cutting rates in 2027, gold could benefit from declining bond yields and a weaker dollar. Renewed investment demand could further support prices.

3. Central Bank Buying and ETF Inflows

Central banks have increasingly diversified their reserves away from the US dollar, partly due to concerns about financial sanctions and the freezing of overseas assets. Gold has emerged as a preferred reserve asset, with central banks purchasing substantial quantities since 2022.

Investment demand has also strengthened. Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded a substantial surge in inflows in 2025, attracting approximately $89 Bn compared with $3.4 Bn in 2024. This reinforced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset amid global economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

The trend has continued in 2026, with gold ETF inflows reaching approximately $39 billion through September. Sustained inflows, even amid elevated gold prices, indicate continued investor interest and could provide further support to bullion.

4. Rupee Depreciation

As of October 2026, the rupee has weakened significantly over the past year. It began 2026 at around Rs 89.85 per dollar and has since depreciated towards Rs 96.73, touching a record low of approximately Rs 96.83 in May'26. Over the longer term, the rupee has generally depreciated against the dollar by around 3-4% annually.

Gold is internationally priced in US dollars, and India imports most of its gold requirements. Consequently, the USD/INR exchange rate plays a crucial role in determining domestic gold prices.

When the rupee depreciates, Indian importers need more rupees to purchase the same quantity of gold, even if international prices remain unchanged. This raises the landed cost of imported gold and supports domestic prices. Therefore, continued rupee weakness could cushion Indian gold prices against corrections in the international market.

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