5 Key Things To Watch In Commodity Market This Week

This week's major attention continues to be on the RBI Policy Meeting and US CPI data despite the US unemployment rate having eased down to 3.5%, gold regaining after U.S. labour market data, and crude oil prices hovering near 4-month highs after supply cutbacks. This week's spotlight will be glued to the US and Indian CPI figures as well as the RBI's interest rate decision, which might cause market volatility. In light of the start of the week, here are five noteworthy developments in the world's commodity markets, according to Sumeet Bagadia - Executive Director of Choice Broking.

Gold:

The MCX Gold Index dipped below 59500 on Monday, as investors braced for critical US inflation data this week, which might impact the path of interest rates. Since mid-July, the metal has been under pressure as hints of economic resiliency in the US and predictions that the Federal Reserve will maintain a restrictive monetary policy for some time have weighed on sentiment. The key support is at 59240 whereas immediate resistance is at 59700 - 59910 levels.

Silver:

Silver prices moved lower on Monday, beginning below 72300 as the US dollar gained ground ahead of this week's inflation test, although bullion was off three-week lows as slowing US job growth pushed bond yields back from recent highs. Immediate support would be at 100-DMA level placed near 71870. If this support level gets a breakthrough, we may expect a further decline in Silver price towards 70200 - 69550 in upcoming sessions. Immediate resistance would be at 72910.

Crude Oil:

MCX Crude Oil prices fell slightly on Monday, but remained near their highs since mid-April, as key producers Saudi Arabia and Russia promised to limit supply for another month in order to tighten global markets and boost prices. Oil prices have recently been supported by predictions of a slowing of US interest rate hikes, a fall in OPEC+ supply, and chances of stimulus boosting oil demand recovery in the world's biggest crude importer China following a disastrous second quarter. The crucial key resistance is at 6875 - 6900 levels and if the price breaks through this mark, we may expect further upside momentum towards 7240.

Natural Gas:

MCX Natural gas costs Friday saw modest advances due to a mixed weather forecast in the United States. High stocks driven by weak heating demand during the unusually mild winter continue to undermine natural gas prices. Warm temperatures this winter increased nat-gas stocks in Europe and the US. While natural gas is trading for less than $3 per MMBtu, it is easy to become complacent about the energy commodity, which can suddenly become highly volatile. Summer will come to an end in the coming weeks, and futures markets will turn their attention to winter and the peak heating season, a usually bullish and turbulent period for NYMEX natural gas contracts. The key support is at 213 whereas immediate resistance is at 222-226 levels.

USDINR:

The dollar recovers from Friday's losses following a lower-than-expected increase in US non-farm payrolls, but gains will be limited as investors await critical US inflation data for July on Thursday. Key support would be at 82.70 whereas resistance will be at 82.90.

Disclaimer

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