After Crossing 20,000 Mark, When Will Nifty Touch 21,000? Hint! Diwali..

Nifty, the 50-scrip benchmark and mainboard of NSE, crossed 20,000 mark for the first time this week. Nifty has been flirting around this level currently. On Wednesday, despite weak global cues, easing in CPI inflation drove bulls across the board pushing Nifty 50 to touch an intraday high of 20,096.90, which is closer to its lifetime high of 20,110.35 recorded in the previous session. Since Nifty has already touched the 20,000 mark, what could be the potential upside further? Is a 21,000 mark stored in the coming months?

On September 13, Nifty settled at 20,070, up by 76.80 points or 0.4% after touching an intraday high of 20,096.90. Except for IT and auto stocks, all other sectoral indices were in green. Bank Nifty surged by 0.9% to settle at 45,909.45, shy of its 46,000 level. PSU banks were the top gainers, while significant buying was also seen in private banks, realty, consumer durables, oil & gas, pharma and media stocks. Coal India, Grasim, Tata Consumer Products, Bharti Airtel, and Titan were top gainers, while HDFC Life, M&M, Adani Ports, L&T, and Cipla were top laggards.

On the latest performance, Rupak De, Senior Technical analyst at LKP Securities said, "Bulls successfully regained control from bears,
pushing Nifty back above the 20,000 mark. Notably, it closed above this threshold, marking a historic closing high for Nifty."

Nifty touched a new historic high of 20,110.35 on September 12th, but it crossed the 20,000 threshold on September 11.

In a six-months span, Nifty 50 has skyrocketed by a whopping 3,026.70 points or 17.8%. But the year-to-date upside is by 1,872.55 points or 10.3%.

When Nifty touched the 20,000 mark for the first time, Parth Nyati, Founder at Tradingo said, the Nifty 50 index has been on a bull run
since the start of the year and has touched a record high of 20,000 points. The market is currently trading at a PE ratio of around 22,
which is slightly above its historical average.

Nyati further explained that since the low 16828 of March 23, Nifty has surged by 18%, which was fuelled by DII's inflow of Rs. 34,000
Cr (appx) during this period. Meanwhile, the mid- and small-cap indices have seen an even more substantial rally, each rising by about
41 percent and 47 percent respectively.

However, he added, "Despite this significant rally and increasing values of local stocks, there are concerns due to weaknesses in the
global market. These problems are driven by a strong US dollar and rising US bond yields. Last week, the number of people in the US
filing for unemployment benefits was lower than expected, which has raised worries about the possibility of interest rates going up.
Additionally, China's trade balance data is showing weakness, which is making the US dollar even stronger."

"As our PM said, this is India's Amritkal, so medium- to long-term opportunities in the Indian stock market will be fabulous. Any
correction due to global factors will be a good buying opportunity in sectors like auto, banking, PSUs, IT etc.," Nyati said.

But JM Financial believes that the 21,000 mark by Nifty is possible by Diwali.

Rahul Sharma, Director, Head- Technical & Derivative Research, JM Financial Services said, "The last few days where weeks have happened in just a few days are testimony to the undertone of this Bull Market. The good thing is there new leadership from IT, Capital Goods and PSE's. BFSI which remained under most pressure is back to positive territory. We are on track to hit 20,432 this month and 21,000 by Diwali."

The Festival of Light is scheduled to take place from November 10 to November 14. During the Diwali festival, stock markets hold an auspicious trading hour which is called Muhurat trading.

NSE's website said Muhurat trading is the auspicious stock market trading for an hour on Diwali (Deepawali). It is a symbolic and old
ritual, that has been retained and observed for ages, by the trading community. As Diwali also marks the beginning of the New Year, it is believed that muhurat trading on this day brings wealth and prosperity throughout the year.

The Muhurat trading for 2023 is scheduled for November 12, 2023.

It will be interesting to see if Nifty has the potential to hit the 21,000 mark during this auspicious hour.

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