Airbus Raises 20-Year Delivery Forecast, Highlights Growing Replacement Demand

Airbus, one of the world's leading aircraft manufacturers, has revised its 20-year delivery forecast, projecting an increase in aircraft demand and emphasising the need for more replacements. It lowered its forecast for global airline fleet growth as carriers focus on replacing older planes, Reuters reported.

The world's largest aircraft manufacturer forecasted 40,850 deliveries, up from 39,490 in its last 20-year estimate given last year.

It increased its projection for freighter deliveries from 890 to 920 jets. This corresponds to 39,930 passenger plane deliveries, with Airbus forecasting that single-aisle jets such as the Airbus A320neo or Boeing (BA.N) 737 MAX will serve 80% of the market.

Airbus has raised its forecast for the number of obsolete aircraft to be replaced over the next two decades from 15,440 to 17,170.

According to Bob Lange, Airbus senior vice president for business analysis and market prediction, this is owing in part to a catch-up effect after two or three years of delayed plane retirements, as well as the permanent departure of stored planes that are not returning to service.

After the number of planes in operation dropped dramatically during the epidemic, with thousands of jets idle globally, airlines are now flying older planes for longer periods of time to compensate for supply chain issues and an abrupt recovery in demand.

The subject is contentious for the industry since environmental groups wonder whether airline developments can be reconciled with the sector's environmental goals.

Planemakers claim that delivering energy-efficient new planes, together with alternative fuels and leaner operations, will make a big contribution to lowering emissions.

Airbus predicted that the worldwide fleet would more than double to 46,560 aircraft in 2042, up from 22,880 units at the start of 2020 before COVID.

However, unusually, its prognosis for the fleet at the conclusion of the forecast period was lower than the previous estimate of 46,930, as growth is expected to stall and retirements to rise. The expectation comes as airlines put orders to update their fleets.

Airbus stated that its figures are based on a medium scenario of 3.6% traffic growth, which might face headwinds from environmental regulations and energy supplies, or tailwinds from increased liberalisation and a "more stable world order."

Asia will see the most rapid growth, driven by India, which remains the world's fastest-growing economy.