Asian Paints Shares Offer Weak Returns Over Last 4 Years; Down 28% from Peak; Time to Buy or Exit?

Decorative paints space giant, Asian Paints has struggled to deliver meaningful shareholder returns over the past four years. Back in July 2021, the stock was trading near Rs. 3,000 per share. Since then, it saw a gradual rise, even touching an all-time high of Rs. 3,576 in August 2022, but the gains were short-lived. Over time, the stock has consistently declined, disappointing long-term investors.

As of July 3, 2025, the Asian Paints share price stands at Rs. 2,439, which marks a 16.6% decline over the past year. On a year-to-date basis, the paint stock is down by nearly 6%, and the performance over the last month also shows an 8% drop. While Asian paints shares gained slightly in recent sessions, it still hasn't recovered enough to be considered a strong performer.

Weak Q4 FY25 Earnings

In May 2025, Asian Paints released its FY25 fourth quarter earnings report in which the company reported a 45% year-on-year drop in net profit to Rs 692 crore, compared to Rs 1,257 crore in Q4 FY24. Revenue also fell by 4% YoY, coming in at Rs 8,330 crore, down from Rs 8,679 crore. Weak urban demand was a key factor behind the disappointing results, and rising input costs may have also played a role.

Paint Sector Outlook

Interestingly, while Asian Paints has been underperforming, the Indian paints industry as a whole is expected to undergo a transformation.

"Competitive activity in the Indian decorative paint segment has been on the rise with the entry of Birla Opus and the recent announcement of the acquisition of Akzo Nobel India by JSW Paints. We like Asian Paints' brand equity & supply chain strengths; however, over the past 2 years these moats have been challenged. While initial signs of normalisation of competitive activity & JSW Paints intent to scale up in a sustainable manner are positive; however, it is too early to call out stabilisation in industry structure." said Mehul Desai of JM Financial Institutional Securities,

The premium segment, which is a stronghold of Asian Paints, could see increased activity from new players as well as existing incumbents (Berger Paints) who are strengthening their position in urban markets. Hence, while valuations are below LT averages for Asian paints, the industry construct & earnings profile/visibility have also changed. We maintain our cautious view on the sector & would await more concrete signs on revenue recovery before changing our stance on Asian Paints." he further noted

Should You Buy Asian Paints Shares Now?

While Asian Paints' brand strength and supply chain remain unmatched, the rising competition, and slow revenue recovery have made analysts cautious.

Systematix Institutional Research has recently issued a 'BUY' call on Asian Paints, setting a target price of Rs. 2,645, implying potential upside from current levels.

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