Banks Q4 Result Preview: NIMs To Be In Tight Range | What Q4 May Hold for HDFC, SBI, ICICI, PNB,etc? TP Inside

Banking Q4 Preview: Strong advances growth, robust fee income, and lower credit costs are expected to support the profitability of Indian banks in the fourth quarter of FY26. However, experts expect net interest margins (NIMs) to remain largely range-bound across most banks during Q4FY26.

Large private banks like HDFC and ICICI banks are expected to report flat margins, while Axis Bank and Kotak Mahindra Bank are likely to report a decline, noted Motilal Oswal in its Q4 bank preview report. Midsized banks, like AU, Bandhan, and IDFC, are expected to report an NIM expansion. State Bank of India, Punjab National Bank, Indian Bank and other PSU Banks may report largely flat NIMs in Q4FY26.

For investors who closely track Q4 results of banks like HDFC, ICICI Bank, SBI, PNB, Kotak Mahindra Bank, etc, here are all the details to know before result announcement.

NIM To Remain Range-Bound

The yield on advances for private banks is expected to remain under pressure as they impact of previous repo rate cuts plays out with a lag effect, noted Systematix Research report in its report.

"The PSBs will also feel the balance impact of 25bps repo rate cut announced in Dec-2025. The downward trend in 1-year MCLR has continued. Within the floating rate loans the share of EBLR linked loans increased to 50.6% for PSBs and 89.3% for PVBs," the brokerage stated in its report.

"However, the downward pressure on yields will be significantly mitigated by the lagged benefits of prior term deposit rate reductions, allowing large private banks and PSU banks like SBI, Bank of Baroda, Bank of India, HDFC Bank, ICICI to report broadly flat margins (+/- 2 bps), while mid-sized banks like City Union Bank and AUSFB with higher yielding lending exposures to see sequential improvement in NIMs," Mirae Asset Sharekhan added in its report.

PSBs To Fuel Strong Credit Momentum

System credit growth improved around 13.8% on a year-on-year basis during the quarter under review, driven by strong traction in corporate, MSME and select retail lending segments.

"Growth momentum is mainly led by PSBs, while PVBs are also accelerating their pace to join the bandwagon. Among banks that have reported provisional 4Q business updates, Axis, BOB, Union, RBL, AUBANK, and UJJIVANS surprised positively, while momentum was relatively moderate on a sequential basis for Kotak and IDFCFB," noted Emkay Global in its report.

Q4 Preview: HDFC Bank Target Price

HDFC Bank may see improvement in growth, stable margins and contained credit costs that will drive up profitability. However, there will be slippages to moderate as agri NPAs ease, as per Emkay Research report.

"Q4FY26 results expected to show NII growth of 5.3% YoY and PAT up 8.2% YoY, driven by 12.1% loan expansion and 14.4% deposit growth. Margins to stay broadly stable with lagged deposit repricing benefits offsetting EBLR yield pressure," noted Mirae Asset in its report.

Motilal Oswal gave a 'Buy' recommendation with a target price of Rs 1,100 per share. Systematix Research also gave a 'Buy' recommendation with a target price of Rs 960 per share.

Q4 Preview: ICICI Bank Target Price

The absence of PSL impact is likely to drive up profitability sequentially. Additionally, slippages are likely to ease on a QoQ basis as KCC stress moderates. Strong business momentum, healthy fee income, and stable asset quality may drive performance in Q4, as per Mirae Asset Sharekhan report.

"NII projected to grow 8.2% YoY with PAT rising 3.4% YoY on 14% loan growth. NIMs to remain flat sequentially aided by prior term deposit rate cuts," the brokerage stated in its report.

Systematix Research gave a 'Buy' recommendation with a target price of Rs 1,630 per share. Motilal Oswal gave ICICI Bank a target price of Rs 1,750.

Q4 Preview: Axis Bank Share Price Target

"Strong 18.3% YoY loan growth to fuel 6.3% NII rise. PAT may decline 2.5% YoY on higher provisions and base but rise 7% QoQ. Fee income to remain healthy; retail and corporate momentum intact with stable asset quality and controlled costs," noted Mirae Asset Sharekhan in its report.

Motilal Oswal gave Axis Bank stock 'Buy' recommendation with a target price of Rs 1,400 per share. Systematix Research gave a 'Buy' recommendation with a target price of Rs 1,530 per share.

Q4 Preview: State Bank of India Share Price Target

SBI Q4 is likely to witness, "strong growth, healthy margins, and contained costs to help deliver healthy profitability; slippages to remain range bound," noted Emkay Research in its report.

Motilal Oswal gave a 'Buy' recommendation to SBI stock with a target price of Rs 1,300 per share. Systematix Research gave a 'Buy' rating with a target price of Rs 1,300 per share.

Q4 Preview: Punjab National Bank Share Price Target

"NII to grow marginally 0.6% YoY but PAT up 3.3% on 12.8% loan expansion. Cost efficiencies and lower provisions to support earnings. Asset quality stable though MSME/export risks monitored," noted Mirae Asset Sharekhan in its report.
Motilal Oswal gave a 'Buy' recommendation to PNB stock with a target price of Rs 145 per share.