The Indian pharmaceutical sector is expected to manufacture sufficient Covid-19 vaccines to meet the domestic demand.
CARE Ratings expects majority of the domestic demand to be fulfilled latest by March 2022, by which time the export opportunities in the high-income markets (i.e., Europe, North America and developed Asian countries) are likely to be completely exhausted.
However, the export opportunities in various African, Asian (excluding China and Japan) and some South American countries (where the pace of vaccination remains very slow) would still exist which we expect to remain greater than 1.25 billion doses.
Furthermore, several countries are considering giving booster dose to their population which will also add to the present supply opportunities. Although Indian vaccine manufacturers are unlikely to get the premium pricing being enjoyed by US-based multi-national companies (MNCs) which are priced anywhere between USD 15 and USD 25 per dose, their average realization could remain anywhere between USD 3.25 and USD 3.50 per dose.
On an aggregate level (i.e., domestic plus export), CARE Ratings expects supply opportunity of at least around USD 10-11 billion during the next three years for the Indian vaccine manufacturers.
The demand for Covid-19 vaccine has created a large opportunity for Indian pharmaceutical and bio-technology companies, according to Care Ratings.
"India being one of the largest manufacturers of vaccines could very well capitalize on the potential domestic as well as the global Covid-19 vaccine demand. Up to August 10, 2021, India had administered around 0.52 billion Covid19 vaccine doses and will require to administer at least another 2 billion vaccine doses. The pace of vaccination in India has been steady at about 50-55 lakh doses per day mainly due to huge demand with supply (despite being sizable) unable to match the immediate demand," the ratings agency has said.