A SBI research report has said that its model suggests that the estimated peak time for Covid-19 infections would be 96 days from 15-Feb, indicating the peak happening in the 3rd week of May. It may be noted that we are incrementally adding around 15000 more cases over peak of previous day as of today, though such numbers are difficult to predict, it has noted.
"The 7-days moving average of fatality rate in the current second wave is higher than fatality rate at the time of first wave peak in case of Chhattisgarh, HP, Uttarakhand and Odisha," the SBI report says.
The country's largest lender has also reduced the GDP for FY 2022 according to its research report. "The Current SBI FY22 projection is at 11% real GDP (RBI: 10.5%) and 15% nominal GDP growth (Union Budget: 14.4%) for FY22 on the back of low base effect and renewed economic momentum. However, given the current circumstances of partial/local/weekend lockdowns in almost all states, our growth forecast is now revised downwards," the SBI Research report has said.
The report also says that the total loss is estimated at Rs 1.5 lakh crores, of which Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan account for 80%. Maharashtra alone at 54%.
The SBI business activity index shows decline in activity in Apr'21 with the latest reading for the week ended 19 Apr'21 of 86.3. This is the lowest in 5 months (16 Nov'21 when the value declined to 85.7).