Early Monsoon Brings Cheer For Agri Sector, But Raises Spoilage Risks

An early onset of monsoon has brought cheers in certain pockets of rural areas with this year expected to have an 'above normal' monsoon as per the estimates of India Meteorological Department (IMD). On May 24, the southwest monsoon officially reached Kerala, eight days ahead of schedule marking its earliest arrival in 16 years, according to the IMD.

A healthy monsoon is key indicator tracked by India Inc for rural demand and agricultural production of Kharif food grains like rice, maize, millet, and pulses like toor and moong.

The early arrival of the four-month monsoon season which accounts for around 70 per cent of India's rainfall, extended beyond Kerala into Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Maharashtra, and even parts of northeastern Mizoram this year.

"The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ) consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country is most likely to be above normal (>106% of LPA)," noted IMD in a release issued on May 27.

IMD DGM Dr. M. Mohapatra told Goodreturns, "Early Rains will be very helpful for agriculture. It will help in filling the water bodies, the reservoirs, thereby improving irrigation, energy generation, and hydropower. Groundwater recharge will also see a boost. However, it's important to note that abnormal or excessive rainfall can lead to severe weather events such as heavy downpours and flooding, especially in flood-prone areas. Overall, the monsoon outlook appears positive and supportive for the country."

Farmers have welcomed the early onset of the monsoon, although with some caution.

Krishan Bir Chaudhary, President, Bharatiya Krishak Samaj & Member, MSP committee, Govt of India said,"These early showers, followed by a strong monsoon season, are likely to enhance crop production and offer farmers better returns on their yields. In turn, this could lead to increased agricultural exports and a positive impact on India's GDP.

He also noted that a good or above-average monsoon would benefit rainwater harvesting efforts. With more water stored, it can be effectively utilized for improved crop production in the upcoming agricultural seasons.

'The pre-monsoon showers have been a blessing for us mushroom growers. Mushrooms need a cool and moist climate to grow well, and this weather is just perfect. Summer usually makes cultivation really difficult because of the heat, but now, with the rains arriving early, it's much easier to manage the crop," says Manaswi Hegde, Mashroom farmer, Shivmoga, Karnataka.

"The only concern is that we might end up meeting next year's demand within this season itself. If that happens, there's a chance of oversupply in the market, which could affect prices and profits later on,' added Hegde.

As per the Economic Survey 2024-25, agriculture growth remained steady in first half of FY25, with Q2 recording a growth rate of 3.5 per cent, marking an improvement over the previous four quarters. The total Kharif food grain production was estimated at a record 1647 lakh metric tonnes in 2024-25, higher by 5.7 per cent year on year.

'Pre-monsoon showers have a big impact on vegetable farming. When the early rains come, they help soften the soil, making it easier to prepare the land and start sowing crops like tomatoes, okra, beans, and chilies. This means farmers can get a head start by planting early-season vegetables and even sell their produce before the main monsoon season begins, which is great for earning better prices,' mentioned Vishwanath, Farmer From Tumakuru, Karnataka.

An early monsoon however, caught some by surprise and may risk inflationary pressure in the short term as instances of spoilage may be higher.

Kalpesh Rai, a vegetable wholesaler in Mumbai who sources produce from Nashik and Solapur, says that prices have started rising and spoilage is becoming a problem. He fears further price hikes over the next few months due to the damage already caused to farms.

Wider Rainfall Across India

The IMD attributes the early monsoon onset to a combination of large-scale atmospheric and oceanic conditions, along with local weather patterns. Moderate to heavy rainfall, accompanied by thunderstorms, lightning, and gusty winds (up to 50 kmph), is expected across the southern peninsula through May 31.

Meanwhile, the west coast including Kerala, Karnataka, coastal Maharashtra, and Goa is expected to receive sustained heavy rainfall over the next week.

The IMD classifies normal seasonal rainfall as between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 87 cm (35 inches).

The IMD has also issued an Orange Alert for Delhi, forecasting rain and thunderstorms. Some parts of the national capital received light showers early Monday morning, signaling that northern India may soon feel the effects of the early monsoon as well.