El Nino Danger! When Will Monsoon Arrive In India? Delhi, Mumbai To Bengaluru, Check Rains Predictions & Dates

We have already covered half of June, and there are no signs of rains yet. The reason is possibility of a dangerous and worser-than-ever-seen, El Nino this year. In India, El Nino is likely to arrive in 12 states severely. These includes Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana and Gujarat among others.

El Nino 2026 Predictions For India

As of now, IMD has forecasted below-average monsoon in India for 2026. Also, the probability of distribution of rainfall across states is expected to be skewed due to deficit rainfall.

At present, the rainfall deficit has widened to 40% in India.

IMD also observed the sea surface temperatures which indicate the development of El Nino conditions during the monsoon. Also, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a significant chance of at least a moderate-strength El Niño developing over June - September.

According to CareEdge report, the impact of a poor monsoon will be felt in agriculture and rural demand, as lower rainfall constrains crop output and weighs on farm incomes. This could, in turn, translate into broader price pressures through elevated food inflation.