El Nino Impact: India's Monsoon Forecast Signals Below-Normal Rains; Uneven Rainfall & Drought Risk in 2026?

India's crucial south-west monsoon in 2026 is expected to be slightly below normal, with early forecasts indicating rainfall could be around 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The anticipated shortfall is being linked to the re-emergence of El Nino, a weather pattern known to weaken monsoon performance across the Indian subcontinent.

El Nino Impact: India's Monsoon Forecast Signals Below-Normal Rains

Private forecaster Skymet Weather has projected that the country may receive about 817 mm of rainfall during the June-September season, with a margin of error of around 5%. While this does not indicate a severe deficit, even a modest decline in rainfall can have wide-ranging consequences for a country where nearly half of farmland depends on monsoon rains.

Uneven Rainfall Pattern Expected

The distribution of rainfall is likely to remain uneven through the season. June could see near-normal precipitation, offering a relatively stable start. However, July and August-the most critical months for crop growth-are expected to witness below-normal rainfall. August, in particular, carries a higher probability of significant deficiency, raising concerns for both agriculture and reservoir levels.

Rising Risk of Drought in 2026

Weather models suggest there is roughly a 30% chance of drought conditions developing this year, along with a 40% probability of overall rainfall being below normal. These projections highlight growing uncertainty around the monsoon, which plays a vital role in sustaining rural incomes, food production, and water resources.

The benchmark used to measure rainfall, known as the Long Period Average, is based on decades of historical data compiled by the India Meteorological Department. For India, the LPA for the monsoon season stands at about 880.6 mm. Forecasts falling below this level signal potential stress for key sectors, especially agriculture.

Why El Nino Matters

El Nino refers to the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This warming disrupts atmospheric circulation patterns, often leading to reduced rainfall and higher temperatures in India. Strong El Nino years have historically been associated with weaker monsoons and, in some cases, droughts.

The Role of the Indian Ocean

Meteorologists are also closely watching the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which can either amplify or offset the impact of El Niño. A favourable IOD phase could partially support rainfall in certain regions, particularly in southern and central India. However, its behaviour remains uncertain at this stage.

Impact on Economy and Daily Life

A weaker monsoon can ripple across multiple sectors. Lower rainfall may affect crop yields, especially for water-intensive crops like rice, pulses, and sugarcane. Reduced reservoir levels could strain drinking water supply and hydropower generation, while also pushing up food prices and inflation.

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