El Nino Threat Over Monsoon 2026? IMD Revises Kerala Arrival Forecast To June; Check State-Wise Expected Dates

The India Meteorological Department has revised its expected timeline for the arrival of the southwest monsoon over Kerala, delaying the earlier projected onset of May 26. As shown in the latest IMD monsoon advance map for 2026, the monsoon has already covered parts of the Andaman & Nicobar region and is gradually progressing northward across the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea.

When is Monsoon Expected in Kerala? Check New Expected Date As Per IMD Weather Forecast

According to the latest IMD update and the official monsoon progression map, the southwest monsoon is now likely to enter Kerala between May 28 and June 3, depending on the development of key weather conditions over the Arabian Sea.

As shown in the latest IMD monsoon advance map for 2026, the monsoon has already covered parts of the Andaman & Nicobar region and is gradually progressing northward across the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. The weather department is still waiting for favourable rainfall activity, stronger westerly winds and cloud patterns before officially declaring the monsoon onset over Kerala.

The southwest monsoon is considered one of India's most important weather systems because it supplies nearly 70% of the country's annual rainfall and directly impacts agriculture, water reservoirs, food production and rural income.

El Nino Could Weaken Rainfall; How It May Impact India's Monsoon and Kharif Crop Season in 2026

This year, weather experts are also closely monitoring the possible emergence of El Nino conditions by July. El Nino generally weakens rainfall activity over India and may affect the second half of the monsoon season, especially across central and peninsular regions where kharif crops depend heavily on seasonal rain.

At the same time, meteorologists say a positive Indian Ocean Dipole may help partially offset some of the rainfall impact later in the season.

When Will Monsoon Reach Major Indian Cities Like Bengaluru, Delhi, Mumbai & More; Check State-wise Dates

According to the latest IMD forecast and monsoon advance map:

• Kerala is expected to receive monsoon rains between May 28 and June 3
• Mumbai may see monsoon arrival between June 5 and June 10
• Bengaluru is likely to receive monsoon showers around June 5 to June 10
• Hyderabad may witness monsoon onset around June 10
• Kolkata could receive monsoon rains between June 10 and June 15
• Delhi is expected to see monsoon conditions around June 27
• Chandigarh and nearby north Indian regions may receive monsoon rains by early July

State-Wise Expected Southwest Monsoon Arrival Dates in India

• Kerala - May 28 to June 3
• Tamil Nadu - June 1 to June 5
• Karnataka - June 5 to June 10
• Andhra Pradesh - June 5 to June 10
• Telangana - Around June 10
• Goa - Around June 10
• Maharashtra - June 10 to June 15
• Odisha - Around June 10
• West Bengal - June 10 to June 15
• Chhattisgarh - Around June 15
• Jharkhand - Around June 15
• Bihar - June 15 to June 20
• Madhya Pradesh - June 15 to June 20
• Gujarat - June 20 to June 25
• Uttar Pradesh - June 20 to June 25
• Delhi - Around June 27
• Haryana - End of June
• Punjab - Around July 1
• Himachal Pradesh - Early July
• Uttarakhand - Early July
• Rajasthan - June 30 to July 8
• Jammu & Kashmir - July 5 to July 8
• Assam - Around June 1
• Meghalaya - Around June 1
• Arunachal Pradesh - Around June 1
• Nagaland - Around June 1
• Manipur - Around June 1
• Mizoram - Around June 1
• Tripura - Around June 1
• Sikkim - Around June 10 to June 15
• Andaman & Nicobar Islands - Already covered between May 16 and May 26
• Lakshadweep - Around May 28 to June 1
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How Accurate Are IMD's Monsoon Forecasts?

Historical trends suggest that IMD's monsoon onset forecasts have generally remained highly accurate, with actual arrival dates usually differing by only a few days.

In 2025, IMD forecast May 27, while monsoon arrived on May 24.
In 2024, the prediction was May 31 and onset occurred on May 30.
In 2023, IMD predicted June 4, while onset happened on June 8.
In 2022, the expected date was May 27 and the monsoon arrived on May 29.

This track record has increased confidence among farmers, businesses and policymakers who closely monitor the monsoon's movement every year.

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