Election Results 2024: Ab Ki Baar, Kiski Sarkar? 10 brokers Predict India’s Next Government

Who is India's next government? It's a question whose answers the whole nation wants to know! India has voted, and the time is near for the Lok Sabha Election 2024 results to be announced on June 4. Before the poll results, the Indian stock market reacted with enthusiasm to expectations of a big BJP win, with PM Modi taking the thrown for his third tenure.

If that is the case, more 'ache din' is seen for both the economy and financial market with the continuation of policies and investments. However, a change in government is seen to dampen sentiments in India until the new party comes up with solid growth-driving measures. Here are the predictions of election results by 10 brokers.

Voting for the Lok Sabha Election 2024 began on April 19, 2024, and concluded its last poll on June 1, 2024. The outcomes of the voting will be declared on June 4, and the majority of consensus is a comeback of PM Modi-led government. Also, RBI's June policy outcomes will influence market sentiments.

So, Ab Ki Baar, Kiski Sarkar? Let's see the poll opinions!

1. Phillip Capital:

Base-case scenario - 290-300 seats for BJP and 330-340 seats for NDA; if this pans out, we have a positive near/long-term stance in equities, earnings, and economy, assuming policy continuity and execution.

A bullish scenario of 325+ BJP and 360+ NDA - should result in a sharp rise in equities.

A bearish scenario - where the BJP does not secure a majority but the NDA forms a government under the leadership of Mr Narendra Modi as PM - might lead to a sharp sell-off in equities. Assuming a stable alliance for the next five years under the leadership of Mr Modi, we would recommend buying equities on steep correction. We do not see any chance of a non-NDA government coming to power.

2. Bernstein:

Case 1: Mission India 2024, BJP alone may bag over 290 seats and NDA over 340 seats.

Case 2: Reigning In Capex: BJP to win 260-290 seats, and NDA to bag 290-340 seats.

Case 3: The Ground Shock: 240-260 seats for BJP, and 270-290 seats in favour of NDA.

Case 4: Return Of Populism: In this scenario, BJP is expected to bag below 240 seats, and NDA below 270 seats.

3. UBS:

1st Scenario: UBS believes if BJP wins the election while retaining the single-party majority, this election outcome is likely to lift market confidence with policy continuity and further growth reforms. Hence, a majority win as a single party is positive for the market.

2nd scenario: if the BJP fails to maintain its single-party majority with NDA holding a majority (> 272 seats), as per UBS, this could lead to dampening the market's confidence.

3rd Scenario: UBS predicts as per polls that the NDA fails to secure a majority, which may impact financial markets negatively.

4th Scenario: The last but not the least outcome could be the newly formed coalition INDIA securing over 272 seats, a majority, and that as per UBS could bring significant market uncertainty and potential abrupt policy changes.

4. IIFL Securities:

The base case scenario is that the BJP party may bag 320 seats, which would be a majority win.

5. Emkay Global:

The exit polls are predicting an unchallenged position for the BJP in the Lok Sabha, with the NDA tracking a solid 365+ mark and better penetration in key states. Even as exit polls are not definitive, the margin of error has been lowered in the last two election cycles.

The outcome, if in line with exit polls, is likely to calm investor nerves, as political and policy continuity will be good for risk assets in the immediate run and macro stability in the medium term.

6. Motilal Oswal:

The BJP is anticipated to inch closer to ~40% vote share on its own (vs. 37.3% in 2019), and the NDA is expected to touch 47% vote share (vs. 45% in 2019). The Congress is also likely to improve its vote share to ~21% in 2024 from 19% in 2019, but it will still be close to half of the BJP's projected vote share.

The BJP is predicted to win an average of 325+ seats (vs. 303 seats in 2019), while the Congress is expected to improve its tally to ~65 seats (from 52 seats in 2019).

7. JM Financial:

We observed that the BJP's strategy of setting an ambitious seat target became a talking point in the absence of a strong wave, as was the case in 2014 and 2019; we believe this strategy was tactfully aimed at warding off complacency among BJP and NDA (National Democratic Alliance) cadres. The opposition's focus on local issues, vis-à-vis the BJP's macro narrative, has succeeded in gaining mindshare among voters and is likely to convert to votes.

On a PAN-India basis, we see the net incremental loss of ~4 seats for BJP at 299 in the base case; our bear and bull case seat tally lies in a narrow range of 290 to 310.

8. Antique Stock Broking:

Based on our analysis of voter turnout data, we believe that the incumbent party may improve its 2019 tally but fall short of the opinion poll expectation of NDA winning 370-410 seats.

Our analysis in terms of mapping 2024 voter turnout change with 2019 winning margin suggests that a) The drop in voter turnout may have a minimal impact on BJP-held seats as the drop in turnout is mainly seen in seats where it had won with very high winning margin (>20%) in 2019; b) On the other hand, Congress might get impacted as lower voter turnout is higher in Congress-held seats where the winning margin is less than 5% in 2019. Empirical analysis on 2019 voter turnout change and 2014 winning margin suggest that voter turnout drop in seats won with high winning margin (>20%) has a lower chance of losing the seat as compared to those in seats won with low winning margin (

9. MUFG:

The exit polls indicate that the incumbent BJP together with the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) could get anywhere between 353 to slightly more than 400 seats, out of 543 seats in the Lower House of Parliament.

If this is right, this would mean Prime Minister Modi has obtained a stronger mandate to govern post the 2024 General Elections.

Scenario 1: Resounding Majority Government: BJP: >363 seats OR NDA: ~400 seats.

Scenario 2: Stronger Majority Government: BJP to win from 303 to 363 seats.

Scenario 3: Slight Majority Government: BJP to win between 272 to 302 seats.

Scenario 4: Strong to Modest Coalition: NDA to win 272 seats and above, while BJP is predicted to win between 230 to 272 seats.

Scenario 5: Weak Coalition, Minority Government: NDA below 250 seats and BJP below 200 seats.

Scenario 6: Change In Government: INDIA Alliance wins 272 seats and above.

10. Jitendra Gohil, Chief Investment Strategist, Kotak Alternate Asset Managers:

In our view, +/- 10-20 seats for the BJP compared to the previous seat count of 303 should not make much of a difference to the market trajectory. Investors are looking for a stable government with the continuation of policies. Hence, the full majority for BJP will be BAU for the market, in our view.

What if the BJP gets less than the full majority mark and forms a coalition government with NDA partners? In this scenario, the market may correct 5-10% in our view. However, in the medium term, it won't make much of a difference and the market may recover. However, in case NDA fails to form the government - probability is thin though- the market may fall 20%+ and will take time to fully recover.

In 2019, the BJP party secured 37.36% of the nationwide vote share and won 303 seats, the highest win by any political party since the 1989 election, while its ring-wing party NDA won 353 seats accounting for 45% of the 603.7 million votes the were polled in that election. This was compared far better compared to 31% of the vote won with 282 seats in 2014 and that of its NDA party bagged a total of 336 seats.

Disclaimer: The recommendations made above are by market analysts and are not advised by either the author or Greynium Information Technologies. The author, nor the brokerage firm nor Greynium would be liable for any losses caused as a result of decisions based on this write-up. Goodreturns.in advises users to consult with certified experts before making any investment decision.