Faster Easing From Restrictions Boosts GDP Recovery Hopes

A Jefferies model that is tracking India's economic recovery shows that the country's economic activity is already at 93 percent pre-Covid 19 levels. Further even as the country is set to overcome the US in its coronavirus caseload, there shall be more easing in gatherings restrictions; also schools and cinema multiplexes in areas out of containment zones will be allowed to reopen from October 15.

Also stock market is also showing resilience having surged almost 11 percent from September 24 levels, where it struck an almost 2-month low and it is just less than 2% away from easing this year's losses on the headline indices. This is also the best performing index globally as per the Bloomberg's compiled data.

"A higher-than-expected level of economic reopening, coupled with various steps from policy makers, creates an upside risk for GDP and earnings estimates, said Sameer Kalra, a strategist at Mumbai-based Target Investing. "There is a good chance that third-quarter GDP shows a recovery and then the Sensex hits a record by December," he said.

On Friday on the RBI's announcement of liquidity measures and more monetary measures kept the market sentiment on a high and capped its best week since early June. Also, better earnings prospect from some of the sectors particularly IT underpinned hopes of a faster recovery.

Maruti for the September month recorded the best sales in the last 2 years even despite the coronavirus led disruptions. The country's third quarter growth numbers will be announced in November end and most eyes will be on it after Indian economy posted record contraction for the April-June quarter.

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